Notre Dame vs Navy: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · Neutral site

Kickoff forecast54°F12 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

6-1 · Power #1

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Navy

2-4 · Power #89

projected

ND 98%

2% NAVY

Spread

ND -28.5

no move since the open

Total

53.5

model 50

Spread edge

ND by 6

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenND -28.5

CurrentND -28.5

Total53.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenND -28.5

no move

NowND -28.5

No change since the open

Total

Open53.5

no move

Now53.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened ND -28.5 · unchangedmodel ND -34.5

model ND -34.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Not moved yetModel vs the opening line: ND by 5.8 pts (open -28.5, now -28.5). In 2025–2026, with a 5+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 77.9% of the 181 games where the line moved (197 at that gap), but those sides covered 55.4% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 10:55 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenND -28.5

CurrentND -28.5

Total53.5

Last update10:55 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ND	NAVY	Over	Under	ND	NAVY
DraftKingsDK	-28.5-110	+28.5-110	53.5-110	53.5-110	-8000	+2200

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 10:55 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

No recent game is a close match for ND as a 28.5-point neutral-site favorite against NAVY. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.

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History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ND LWLWL	4-3	57%	1-0	4-3
NAVY LLLWW	2-4	33%	—	1-1

Venue/role: ND neutral, as favorite; NAVY neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UOOOO	5-2	71%	6-1
NAVY OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 1493 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
NAVY	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs MIA	L24–27LO
Nov 14	vs BC	W25–10LU
Nov 21	vs SMU	No meeting since 2023

Navy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs TEM	W32–31LO
Nov 21	vs MEM	W28–17WU
Nov 28	@ CLT	W51–17WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ND 3–0 NAVY ND leads · 3 games since 2023 · ND has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Navy 10 @ Notre Dame 49	ND -30.5	ND W
Oct 26 2024	Notre Dame 51 @ Navy 14	ND -14.5	ND W
Aug 26 2023	Navy 3 @ Notre Dame 42	ND -20	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+24.9 →+26.2▲ 1.3#1

NAVY−9.5 →−4.9▲ 4.6#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#13

Offense

◀ ND better

#46

Defense

◀ ND better

#70

+2.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ ND better

−1.0 #129

68 plays #49

Pace

◀ ND faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #6	25.8 #90	ND
Yards / play	6.52 #33	5.35 #64	ND
PPA / play	+0.36 #5	+0.13 #93	ND
Success rate	51% #9	37% #32	ND

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	NAVY off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #77	13.4 #5	ND
Yards / play	6.40 #40	4.30 #6	ND
PPA / play	+0.23 #35	−0.08 #9	ND
Success rate	48% #31	35% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ND scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	11.3 #9	13.7 #11	25.0 #6	6.6 #58	9.6 #21	16.1 #31
NAVY allowed	4.7 #68	14.5 #137	19.2 #130	3.2 #33	3.5 #12	6.7 #10

NAVY scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.8 #79	8.3 #80	14.2 #81	5.5 #86	8.5 #41	14.0 #56
ND allowed	2.4 #14	5.4 #34	7.9 #20	2.7 #26	2.9 #6	5.6 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.