UAB @ South Florida: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at South Florida · Conference game

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UAB

4-3 · Power #107

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

South Florida

5-2 · Power #76

projected

UAB 22%

78% USF

Spread

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Total

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model 44

Model line

USF -11

USF 78% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB PWLLW	3-3-1	50%	1-1-1	—
USF WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: UAB away; USF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UUUUU	1-6	14%	4-3
USF OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	2-8 20%
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UAB

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs CLT	L27–29LU
Nov 14	@ TEM	W34–24WU
Nov 21	vs UTSA	L20–41LU

South Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 6	@ ECU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 12	vs MEM	L31–34LO
Nov 21	@ FAU	W48–13WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UAB 2–3 USF USF leads · 5 games since 2003 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	South Florida 48 @ UAB 18	USF -22.5	USF W
Oct 19 2024	UAB 25 @ South Florida 35	USF -14.5	UAB W
Oct 7 2023	South Florida 35 @ UAB 56	USF -3	UAB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−11.8 →−9.6▲ 2.2#107

USF+8.1 →−2.8▼ 10.9#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

UAB

Longer bar = better

USF

#106

Offense

USF better ▶

#76

#61

Defense

USF better ▶

#46

0.0 #72

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.4 #46

67 plays #59

Pace

◀ UAB faster

59 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	UAB off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #104	15.1 #13	USF
Yards / play	5.06 #120	5.07 #48	USF
PPA / play	+0.04 #110	+0.01 #37	USF
Success rate	41% #88	42% #87	Even

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #87	24.6 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.48 #100	4.95 #33	UAB
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.02 #40	UAB
Success rate	47% #37	43% #96	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	2.9 #119	8.0 #87	10.9 #107	2.1 #133	8.4 #43	10.6 #101
USF allowed	2.7 #18	5.7 #41	8.4 #29	1.9 #10	4.9 #39	6.7 #11

USF scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.9 #76	4.3 #131	10.1 #115	5.0 #96	11.4 #6	16.4 #27
UAB allowed	7.0 #115	8.7 #98	15.7 #109	4.4 #58	4.4 #28	8.9 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.