Florida Atlantic @ North Texas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at North Texas · Conference game

Kickoff forecast76°F10 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Florida Atlantic

4-2 · Power #102

projected

Thu 7:30 PM ET

North Texas

4-2 · Power #54

projected

FAU 10%

90% UNT

Spread

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Total

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model 67.5

Model line

UNT -17.5

UNT 90% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FAU WWWWL	4-2	67%	1-2	—
UNT WLWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	—

Venue/role: FAU away; UNT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FAU OUOOO	5-1	83%	4-2
UNT UOOOO	5-1	83%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FAU	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida Atlantic

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs UTSA	L24–38LO
Nov 14	@ TLSA	W40–21WO
Nov 21	vs USF	L13–48LU

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs RICE	W56–24WO
Nov 14	@ UTSA	W55–17WO
Nov 21	@ TULN	L21–34LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FAU 0–1 UNT UNT leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	North Texas 41 @ Florida Atlantic 37	UNT -5.5	FAU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FAU−10.2 →−9.0▲ 1.2#102

UNT+4.5 →+4.6▲ 0.1#51

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

FAU

Longer bar = better

UNT

#52

Offense

UNT better ▶

#10

#114

Defense

UNT better ▶

#99

+0.3 #52

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #51

76 plays #6

Pace

Even

73 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FAU has the ball

Advantage: FAU offense

	FAU off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #38	29.2 #113	FAU
Yards / play	5.46 #102	5.52 #78	UNT
PPA / play	+0.24 #31	+0.15 #101	FAU
Success rate	47% #35	44% #105	FAU

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	FAU def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #4	31.5 #118	UNT
Yards / play	7.30 #5	6.34 #123	UNT
PPA / play	+0.36 #4	+0.25 #125	UNT
Success rate	48% #28	42% #88	UNT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FAU scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FAU scored	12.2 #5	13.3 #13	25.5 #3	6.7 #54	2.8 #137	9.5 #119
UNT allowed	7.5 #121	8.5 #91	16.0 #111	4.0 #48	8.2 #114	12.2 #80

UNT scoring against the FAU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	7.8 #39	15.3 #3	23.2 #12	11.0 #8	6.8 #71	17.8 #19
FAU allowed	8.0 #125	11.0 #123	19.0 #128	4.7 #67	7.8 #103	12.5 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.