North Texas @ Navy: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Navy · Conference game

Kickoff forecast59°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Texas

4-2 · Power #54

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Navy

2-4 · Power #89

projected

UNT 60%

40% NAVY

Spread

UNT -3

open UNT -1.5

Total

62.5

model 59.5

Spread edge

UNT by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUNT -1.5

CurrentUNT -3

Total61.5 → 62.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUNT -1.5

1.5 → UNT

NowUNT -3

1.5 pts toward North Texas

Total

Open61.5

▲ 1

Now62.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UNT -1.5 · now UNT -2.5 · moved 1 toward UNTmodel UNT -6.5

model UNT -6.5

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: UNT by 5.0 pts (open -1.5, now -3). In 2025–2026, with a 5+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 77.9% of the 181 games where the line moved (197 at that gap), but those sides covered 55.4% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 61%, covered 51% (233 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUNT -1.5

CurrentUNT -3

Total61.5 → 62.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:06

North Texas at Navy: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:54 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved toward North Texas since it opened. North Texas visits Navy, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have North Texas 54th and Navy 89th. That’s about 9 points better than Navy on a neutral field. Since the preseason, North Texas has dropped from 47th to 54th, while Navy has climbed from 101st to 89th. Kickoff forecast at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium: 59 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. North Texas comes off a bye. North Texas has the better offense, 10th to 46th. Navy has the better defense, 70th to 99th. North Texas plays at the faster pace. North Texas games have gone over 5 of 6 times. The model has North Texas winning 32 to 29, a 59 percent chance. North Texas is favored by 2.5, up from 1.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 61.5 and sits at 62.5. Our model makes it North Texas by 6.5, with a total near 60.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UNT	NAVY	Over	Under	UNT	NAVY
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-112	+2.5-105	62.5-110	62.5-108	-140	+115
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-116	+2.5-104	62.5-110	62.5-110	-138	+118
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-115	+2.5-108	62.5-117	62.5-107	-141	+114
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	62.5-110	62.5-110	-135	+115
BovadaBovada	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	63-110	63-110	-135	+115
DraftKingsDK	-3-115	+3-105	62.5-108	62.5-112	-155	+130
FanDuelFD	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	62.5-110	62.5-110	-137	+114
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2.5-112	+2.5+100	62.5-108	62.5-108	-138	+118
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	63-110	63-110	-135	+110

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	UNT	NAVY	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-0.5-102	+0.5-118	30.5-120	30.5+100
DraftKingsDK	-0.5-102	+0.5-118	30.5-120	30.5+100
FanDuelFD	-1.5+110	+1.5-134	30.5-130	30.5+106

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

UNT -3

NAVY +3

Bets60% 40%

Money75% 25%

Money is 15 pts ahead of bets on UNT -3

Winner

UNT

NAVY

Bets80% 20%

Money87% 13%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNT as a 3-point road favorite at NAVY, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 3.8; 62.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Very close	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5
Very close	ECU @ TEM 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	45–14	W	O58.5
Close	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5
Close	UNT @ TLSA 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	45–44	L	O56.5
Close	COLO @ TTU 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	41–27	W	O62
Close	JXST @ WKU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-0.5	17–19	L	U62.5
Close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5
Close	TXST @ USA 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	45–38	W	O61
Close	TXST @ UL 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	39–42	L	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNT WLWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	2-1
NAVY LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UNT away, as favorite; NAVY home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNT UOOOO	5-1	83%	4-2
NAVY OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 564 games with totals 58.5–66.5, 47% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNT	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
NAVY	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 29	vs FAU	W41–37LO
Nov 7	vs RICE	W56–24WO
Nov 14	@ UTSA	W55–17WO

Navy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs ND	L10–49LO
Nov 7	vs TEM	W32–31LO
Nov 21	vs MEM	W28–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

UNT 1–2 NAVY NAVY leads · 3 games since 2007 · UNT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Navy 17 @ North Texas 31	UNT -6.5	UNT W
Oct 7 2023	North Texas 24 @ Navy 27	NAVY -5	UNT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNT+4.5 →+4.0▼ 0.5#54

NAVY−9.5 →−4.7▲ 4.8#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UNT

Longer bar = better

NAVY

#10

Offense

◀ UNT better

#46

#99

Defense

NAVY better ▶

#70

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

◀ UNT better

−1.0 #129

73 plays #8

Pace

◀ UNT faster

65 plays #85

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNT has the ball

Advantage: UNT offense

	UNT off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #4	25.8 #90	UNT
Yards / play	7.30 #5	5.35 #64	UNT
PPA / play	+0.36 #4	+0.13 #93	UNT
Success rate	48% #28	37% #32	Even

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	UNT def	Edge
Points / game	28.2 #77	29.2 #113	NAVY
Yards / play	6.40 #40	5.52 #77	NAVY
PPA / play	+0.23 #35	+0.15 #101	NAVY
Success rate	48% #31	44% #105	NAVY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNT scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNT scored	7.8 #40	15.3 #3	23.2 #12	11.0 #8	6.8 #70	17.8 #19
NAVY allowed	4.7 #68	14.5 #137	19.2 #130	3.2 #33	3.5 #12	6.7 #10

NAVY scoring against the UNT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	5.8 #79	8.3 #80	14.2 #81	5.5 #87	8.5 #41	14.0 #57
UNT allowed	7.5 #121	8.5 #90	16.0 #111	4.0 #49	8.2 #114	12.2 #80

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.