James Madison @ App State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Thu, Oct 22, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at App State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

James Madison

7-0 · Power #51

final

Final

App State

4-2 · Power #94

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -12.5

✓ APP W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 33–21 APP

✗ JMU (80%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -10.5

CloseJMU -12.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:29

James Madison at App State: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 22, 11:30 PM ET).

Transcript

Final: App State 34, James Madison 31. The market had James Madison favored. It didn’t matter. James Madison struck first, an 8-play, 75-yard touchdown drive. App State went up 31 to 24 in the fourth quarter. James Madison tied it at 31 moments later. App State’s field goal as time expired made it 34 to 31, the winning score. Fourth quarter, 6:03 left. Phares intercepts Coleman. That lifted App State’s win probability by 26 points. Fourth quarter, as time expires. Coleman runs it in from 6 yards out. That lifted James Madison’s win probability by 41 points. Overtime, as time expires. London hits a 40-yard field goal. That lifted App State’s win probability by 55 points. James Madison led 14 to 10 at the half. App State won the fourth quarter, 18 to 10. James Madison out-gained App State 423 yards to 366. App State won the turnover battle, 0 to 1. Before kickoff, our model had James Madison winning 33 to 21. It had the wrong winner. It projected 54.5 total points; they scored 65. James Madison was favored by 12.5, and App State covered by 15.5. With 65 points, the game went over the total of 56.5. The model’s side against the spread, App State, cashed. In our power ratings, James Madison drops from 43rd to 45th, and App State climbs from 96th to 94th. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -10.5

2 → JMU

CloseJMU -12.5

2 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened JMU -10.5 · closed JMU -12.5 · moved 2 toward JMUmodel JMU -9.5

model JMU -9.5

Oct 20line modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 81%, covered 44% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (344 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenJMU -10.5

CloseJMU -12.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	JMU	APP	Over	Under	JMU	APP
BetMGMMGM	-11.5-110	+11.5-110	56.5-108	56.5-110	-475	+360
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-12-110	+12-110	56-115	56-105	-470	+364
BetRiversBetRivers	-11-110	+11-112	56.5-109	56.5-113	-500	+350
BetUSBetUS	-12-110	+12-110	56-115	56-105	-470	+370
BovadaBovada	-12-110	+12-110	56.5-110	56.5-110	-490	+355
DraftKingsDK	-12.5-112	+12.5-108	56.5-112	56.5-108	-485	+370
FanDuelFD	-11.5-112	+11.5-108	56.5-108	56.5-112	-480	+360
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-12-106	+12-106	56-114	56-103	-470	+364
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-12-110	+12-110	56-110	56-110	-500	+360

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

6 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	JMU	APP	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-6.5-120	+6.5+100	23.5-285	23.5+210
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-6.5-120	+6.5+100	28.5-110	28.5-110
BetRiversBetRivers	-6.5-137	+6.5+104	28.5-122	28.5-109
BetUSBetUS	-6.5-120	+6.5+100	28.5-110	28.5-110
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-120	+6.5+100	28.5-110	28.5-110
FanDuelFD	-6.5-122	+6.5+100	28.5-104	28.5-118

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money · at kickoff

Spread

JMU -12.5

APP +12.5

Bets61% 39%

Money61% 39%

Winner

JMU

APP

Bets94% 6%

Money94% 6%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Last numbers before kickoff. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 12.5-point road favorite at APP, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: APP won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Below normal · usually 80%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 12; 56.9 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SMU @ RICE 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-12.5	36–31	L	O59
Very close	WAKE @ CAL 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	41–7	W	U54.5
Very close	NAVY @ TEM 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-10	32–31	L	O52.5
Very close	JMU @ MRSH 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-13.5	35–23	L	O53.5
Close	TXST @ ODU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	14–24	L	U60
Close	BOIS @ SJSU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	42–21	W	O62
Close	SMU @ CAL 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-13.5	35–38	L	O53.5
Close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Close	VT @ CAL 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	20–25	L	U51.5
Close	ODU @ MRSH 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	24–48	L	O57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWWLW	6-1	86%	2-1	5-1
APP WLWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	2-0

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; APP home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UOOUO	4-3	57%	7-0
APP UUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2

Went over in Q4. Of 653 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%
APP	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

JMU 3–7 APP APP leads · 10 games since 1980 · APP has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	App State 10 @ James Madison 58	JMU -19.5	JMU W
Nov 23 2024	James Madison 20 @ App State 34	JMU -6.5	APP W
Nov 18 2023	App State 26 @ James Madison 23	JMU -10	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.8 →+4.7▼ 1.1#49

APP−10.7 →−7.3▲ 3.4#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

JMU

Longer bar = better

APP

#24

Offense

◀ JMU better

#74

#33

Defense

◀ JMU better

#60

+1.0 #12

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #25

68 plays #55

Pace

Even

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	42.9 #3	21.8 #56	JMU
Yards / play	6.78 #19	5.12 #51	JMU
PPA / play	+0.25 #23	+0.06 #54	JMU
Success rate	45% #49	42% #80	JMU

When APP has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	APP off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #69	16.0 #18	JMU
Yards / play	6.11 #54	5.02 #42	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	0.00 #30	JMU
Success rate	41% #89	38% #41	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.7 #8	15.0 #5	26.7 #2	7.7 #33	8.4 #40	16.1 #30
APP allowed	4.7 #69	6.8 #63	11.5 #64	2.5 #23	7.8 #103	10.3 #60

APP scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	4.5 #95	9.7 #55	14.2 #81	7.8 #31	7.5 #55	15.3 #37
JMU allowed	4.4 #59	4.1 #23	8.6 #31	2.3 #15	5.1 #47	7.4 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.