Louisiana @ Southern Miss: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

Kickoff forecast77°F11 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

5-2 · Power #81

projected

Sat 5:00 PM ET

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #127

projected

UL 77%

23% USM

Spread

UL -10

open UL -10.5

Total

52.5

model 52.5

Spread edge

UL by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUL -10.5

CurrentUL -10

Total52.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUL -10.5

0.5 → USM

NowUL -10

0.5 pts toward Southern Miss

Total

Open52.5

no move

Now52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UL -10.5 · now UL -10 · moved 0.5 toward USMmodel UL -11.5

model UL -11.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Road favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 75%, covered 56% (85 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUL -10.5

CurrentUL -10

Total52.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:08

Louisiana at Southern Miss: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:10 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

On paper, this one looks like a mismatch. It’s Louisiana at Southern Miss, Saturday at 5 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Louisiana 81st and Southern Miss 127th. That’s about 13 points better than Southern Miss on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Louisiana has moved up from 113th to 81st, while Southern Miss has fallen from 94th to 127th. Kickoff forecast at M. M. Roberts Stadium: 77 degrees, dry, wind 9 miles per hour. Louisiana is 3 and 0 against the spread on the road. Louisiana is 5 and 1 with a push against the spread this season. On offense, Louisiana ranks 78th and Southern Miss 93rd. On defense, Louisiana ranks 42nd and Southern Miss 113th. Our model projects Louisiana 32, Southern Miss 21, with a 77 percent win chance. Louisiana is favored by 10, down from 10.5 at the open, away from our model. The total is 52.5. Our model makes it Louisiana by 11.5, with a total near 53. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	UL	USM	Over	Under	UL	USM
BetMGMMGM	-10-108	+10-110	52.5-110	52.5-108	-375	+300
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-10-105	+10-115	52.5-115	52.5-105	-380	+303
BetRiversBetRivers	-10-113	+10-110	51.5-109	51.5-114	-435	+310
BetUSBetUS	-10-110	+10-110	52.5-115	52.5-105	-380	+305
BovadaBovada	-9.5-115	+9.5-105	52.5-110	52.5-110	-410	+305
DraftKingsDK	-10-108	+10-112	52.5-112	52.5-108	-380	+300
FanDuelFD	-9.5-115	+9.5-105	52.5-110	52.5-110	-385	+300
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-10-101	+10-111	52.5-114	52.5-103	-380	+303
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-10-110	+10-110	53-110	53-110	-410	+300

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	UL	USM	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-6.5-109	+6.5-111	26.5-119	26.5-101
DraftKingsDK	-6.5-105	+6.5-115	26.5-122	26.5+102
FanDuelFD	-6.5-112	+6.5-108	26.5-118	26.5-104

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

UL -10

USM +10

Bets43% 57%

Money41% 59%

Winner

USM

Bets97% 3%

Money83% 17%

Money is 14 pts ahead of bets on USM

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UL as a 10-point road favorite at USM, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 9.7; 61.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 6 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CONN @ MASS 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	47–42	L	O49.5
Very close	USA @ ULM 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11	55–7	W	O51
Very close	TEM @ CLT 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	49–14	W	O47.5
Very close	CONN @ DEL 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	41–44	L	O52.5
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	34–14	W	U51.5
Very close	TOL @ AKR 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-9.5	14–21	L	U49.5
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Very close	MEM @ CLT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	44–38	L	O51.5
Very close	ORST @ UTEP 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-11.5	33–7	W	U56.5
Very close	SHSU @ UTEP 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-10	41–21	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UL PWLWW	5-1-1	83%	3-0	3-1-1
USM LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: UL away, as favorite; USM home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2
USM UOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5

In 1565 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%
USM	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs USA	W31–22WO
Nov 12	@ ULM	W30–27LO
Nov 21	vs CCU	W34–24WO

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ ULM	W49–21WO
Nov 5	vs JMU	L15–32WU
Nov 14	@ LT	L20–30LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

UL 5–24 USM USM leads · 29 games since 1953 · USM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Southern Miss 22 @ Louisiana 10	USM -4.5	USM W
Oct 5 2024	Louisiana 23 @ Southern Miss 13	UL -16.5	USM W
Nov 9 2023	Southern Miss 34 @ Louisiana 31	UL -7.5	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−10.9 →−3.4▲ 7.5#80

USM−8.2 →−16.1▼ 7.9#126

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

Longer bar = better

USM

#78

Offense

◀ UL better

#93

#42

Defense

◀ UL better

#113

+0.6 #32

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.5 #107

66 plays #71

Pace

USM faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #68	32.7 #126	UL
Yards / play	5.70 #86	6.00 #109	UL
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.21 #118	UL
Success rate	43% #75	44% #97	UL

When USM has the ball

Advantage: UL defense

	USM off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #97	19.3 #35	UL
Yards / play	5.79 #77	4.98 #38	UL
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	−0.03 #18	UL
Success rate	42% #86	42% #77	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UL scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.9 #92	10.1 #50	15.0 #73	6.4 #61	8.6 #38	15.0 #40
USM allowed	10.7 #136	9.0 #102	19.7 #134	6.7 #100	6.3 #73	13.0 #96

USM scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	1.7 #135	8.8 #75	10.5 #113	9.2 #13	4.5 #121	13.7 #64
UL allowed	1.0 #2	8.3 #84	9.3 #38	2.3 #16	7.7 #99	10.0 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.