Southern Miss @ UL Monroe: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at UL Monroe · Conference game

Kickoff forecast85°F11 mphDryWeather watch ›

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #127

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

UL Monroe

0-6 · Power #137

projected

USM 65%

35% ULM

Spread

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Total

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model 55

Model line

USM -5.5

USM 65% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USM LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	—
ULM WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-3	—

Venue/role: USM away; ULM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USM UOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5
ULM UOOOU	4-2	67%	0-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USM	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
ULM	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	vs JMU	L15–32WU
Nov 14	@ LT	L20–30LU
Nov 21	vs USA	L35–42LO

UL Monroe

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ ARST	W28–16WU
Nov 12	vs UL	L27–30WO
Nov 21	@ APP	L40–41WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USM 2–1 ULM USM leads · 3 games since 2023 · USM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	UL Monroe 21 @ Southern Miss 49	USM -13.5	USM W
Oct 12 2024	Southern Miss 21 @ UL Monroe 38	ULM -4.5	ULM W
Nov 4 2023	UL Monroe 7 @ Southern Miss 24	USM -3	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USM−8.2 →−16.0▼ 7.8#127

ULM−17.2 →−23.5▼ 6.3#137

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

USM

Longer bar = better

ULM

#93

Offense

◀ USM better

#114

#113

Defense

◀ USM better

#135

−0.5 #107

Turnovers

◀ USM better

−0.8 #125

68 plays #52

Pace

◀ USM faster

64 plays #90

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #97	41.2 #137	USM
Yards / play	5.79 #76	6.92 #136	USM
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.28 #131	Even
Success rate	42% #86	49% #135	USM

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #122	32.7 #126	Even
Yards / play	5.30 #113	6.00 #109	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #134	+0.21 #118	Even
Success rate	42% #87	44% #97	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USM scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	1.7 #135	8.8 #75	10.5 #113	9.2 #13	4.5 #121	13.7 #63
ULM allowed	9.3 #134	14.2 #135	23.5 #137	8.7 #128	9.0 #123	17.7 #129

ULM scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.5 #112	7.2 #98	10.7 #111	5.7 #81	3.7 #131	9.3 #121
USM allowed	10.7 #136	9.0 #102	19.7 #134	6.7 #100	6.3 #72	13.0 #96

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.