UL Monroe @ Arkansas State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Arkansas State · Conference game

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UL Monroe

0-6 · Power #137

projected

Sat 3:00 PM ET

Arkansas State

3-4 · Power #103

projected

ULM 10%

90% ARST

Spread

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Total

—

model 53

Model line

ARST -18

ARST 90% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ULM WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	—
ARST LLWLW	3-4	43%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ULM away; ARST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ULM UOOOU	4-2	67%	0-6
ARST UUUOU	3-4	43%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ULM	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
ARST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

UL Monroe

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	vs UL	L27–30WO
Nov 21	@ APP	L40–41WO
Nov 28	vs MRSH	L23–28WO

Arkansas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ CCU	L17–27LU
Nov 21	@ LT	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	vs TROY	W23–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ULM 9–26 ARST ARST leads · 35 games since 1974 · ULM has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2025	Arkansas State 16 @ UL Monroe 28	ULM -1.5	ULM W
Nov 23 2024	UL Monroe 21 @ Arkansas State 28	ARST -2.5	ARST W
Oct 28 2023	Arkansas State 34 @ UL Monroe 24	ULM -1	ARST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ULM−17.2 →−23.5▼ 6.3#137

ARST−10.2 →−9.1▲ 1.1#103

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ULM

Longer bar = better

ARST

#114

Offense

ARST better ▶

#64

#135

Defense

ARST better ▶

#107

−0.8 #125

Turnovers

ARST better ▶

+0.4 #43

64 plays #90

Pace

◀ ULM faster

62 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ULM has the ball

Even matchup

	ULM off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #122	26.6 #95	ARST
Yards / play	5.30 #113	6.14 #116	Even
PPA / play	−0.06 #134	+0.15 #100	ARST
Success rate	42% #87	45% #115	ULM

When ARST has the ball

Advantage: ARST offense

	ARST off	ULM def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #81	41.2 #137	ARST
Yards / play	5.93 #64	6.92 #136	ARST
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.28 #131	ARST
Success rate	47% #36	49% #135	ARST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ULM scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ULM scored	3.5 #112	7.2 #98	10.7 #111	5.7 #81	3.7 #131	9.3 #121
ARST allowed	4.0 #46	9.9 #115	13.9 #96	6.6 #99	6.1 #65	12.7 #92

ARST scoring against the ULM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	2.3 #131	12.9 #17	15.1 #69	5.9 #76	6.4 #82	12.3 #87
ULM allowed	9.3 #134	14.2 #135	23.5 #137	8.7 #128	9.0 #123	17.7 #129

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.