Georgia State @ App State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at App State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast48°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Georgia State

4-2 · Power #91

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

App State

5-2 · Power #94

projected

GAST 43%

57% APP

Spread

—

Total

—

model 58.5

Model line

APP -2.5

APP 57% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-1	—
APP LWLWW	5-2	71%	2-2	—

Venue/role: GAST away; APP home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
APP UOUOO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
APP	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs GASO	L24–41LO
Nov 21	@ MRSH	L18–30LU
Nov 28	vs UL	W20–17WU

App State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ MRSH	W26–24WU
Nov 21	vs ULM	W41–40LO
Nov 27	@ USA	L14–48

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GAST 0–3 APP APP leads · 3 games since 2023 · APP has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	App State 41 @ Georgia State 20	APP -2.5	APP W
Oct 26 2024	Georgia State 26 @ App State 33	APP -7.5	GAST W
Nov 11 2023	App State 42 @ Georgia State 14	GAST -3	APP W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−14.5 →−4.8▲ 9.7#89

APP−10.7 →−6.4▲ 4.3#94

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

GAST

Longer bar = better

APP

#27

Offense

◀ GAST better

#76

#59

Defense

Even

#63

−0.7 #115

Turnovers

APP better ▶

+0.7 #22

69 plays #40

Pace

Even

70 plays #34

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	APP def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #25	23.1 #63	GAST
Yards / play	6.53 #30	5.19 #55	GAST
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.06 #55	GAST
Success rate	48% #26	42% #80	GAST

When APP has the ball

Even matchup

	APP off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	30.1 #65	24.0 #72	Even
Yards / play	5.92 #65	5.47 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.11 #84	+0.05 #49	GAST
Success rate	41% #89	38% #43	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the APP defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.2 #23	14.0 #8	23.2 #12	11.3 #6	2.0 #138	13.3 #68
APP allowed	5.0 #74	6.9 #66	11.9 #67	3.1 #32	8.1 #112	11.3 #70

APP scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
APP scored	3.9 #104	9.7 #53	13.6 #88	7.1 #40	9.0 #29	16.1 #31
GAST allowed	7.3 #118	6.3 #56	13.7 #95	6.0 #87	4.3 #25	10.3 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.