Georgia Southern @ Georgia State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Georgia State · Conference game

Georgia Southern

3-4 · Power #82

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Georgia State

4-2 · Power #91

projected

GASO 47%

53% GAST

Spread

—

Total

—

model 58.5

Model line

GAST -1

GAST 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO LWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	—
GAST WWWWL	5-1	83%	3-0	—

Venue/role: GASO away; GAST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4
GAST UOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
GAST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ TROY	L20–28LU
Nov 28	vs LT	No meeting since 2023

Georgia State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ MRSH	L18–30LU
Nov 28	vs UL	W20–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GASO 3–0 GAST GASO leads · 3 games since 2023 · GASO has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Georgia State 24 @ Georgia Southern 41	GASO -6.5	GASO W
Sep 28 2024	Georgia Southern 38 @ Georgia State 21	GAST -3.5	GASO W
Oct 26 2023	Georgia State 27 @ Georgia Southern 44	Pick’em	GASO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−8.8 →−3.4▲ 5.4#82

GAST−14.5 →−4.8▲ 9.7#89

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

GASO

Longer bar = better

GAST

#74

Offense

GAST better ▶

#27

#57

Defense

Even

#59

+0.3 #58

Turnovers

◀ GASO better

−0.7 #115

68 plays #51

Pace

Even

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Even matchup

	GASO off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	24.4 #95	24.0 #72	GAST
Yards / play	5.82 #74	5.47 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #70	+0.05 #49	GAST
Success rate	44% #55	38% #43	Even

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #25	23.0 #62	GAST
Yards / play	6.53 #30	5.09 #50	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.07 #65	GAST
Success rate	48% #26	39% #50	GAST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	6.9 #55	9.1 #70	16.0 #61	3.4 #125	5.0 #114	8.4 #129
GAST allowed	7.3 #118	6.3 #56	13.7 #95	6.0 #87	4.3 #25	10.3 #58

GAST scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.2 #23	14.0 #8	23.2 #12	11.3 #6	2.0 #138	13.3 #68
GASO allowed	4.4 #59	6.6 #61	11.0 #54	5.0 #72	7.0 #89	12.0 #78

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.