Georgia State @ Marshall: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Marshall · Conference game

Georgia State

4-2 · Power #91

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Marshall

4-3 · Power #114

projected

GAST 64%

36% MRSH

Spread

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Total

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model 60

Model line

GAST -5

GAST 64% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GAST WWWWL	5-1	83%	2-1	—
MRSH WLLLW	2-5	29%	1-3	—

Venue/role: GAST away; MRSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GAST UOUOO	4-2	67%	4-2
MRSH OOOUU	3-4	43%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GAST	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
MRSH	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Georgia State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs UL	W20–17WU

Marshall

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ ULM	W28–23LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

GAST 1–2 MRSH MRSH leads · 3 games since 2023 · MRSH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Marshall 30 @ Georgia State 18	MRSH -9.5	MRSH W
Oct 17 2024	Georgia State 20 @ Marshall 35	MRSH -8.5	MRSH W
Oct 14 2023	Marshall 24 @ Georgia State 41	GAST -1.5	GAST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GAST−14.5 →−4.8▲ 9.7#89

MRSH−5.9 →−12.3▼ 6.4#116

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

GAST

Longer bar = better

MRSH

#27

Offense

◀ GAST better

#78

#59

Defense

◀ GAST better

#117

−0.7 #115

Turnovers

◀ GAST better

−1.1 #134

69 plays #40

Pace

Even

69 plays #39

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GAST has the ball

Advantage: GAST offense

	GAST off	MRSH def	Edge
Points / game	36.5 #25	30.7 #117	GAST
Yards / play	6.53 #30	6.39 #126	GAST
PPA / play	+0.24 #27	+0.25 #127	GAST
Success rate	48% #26	44% #98	GAST

When MRSH has the ball

Even matchup

	MRSH off	GAST def	Edge
Points / game	21.7 #108	24.0 #72	GAST
Yards / play	5.69 #87	5.47 #73	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #68	+0.05 #49	Even
Success rate	46% #47	38% #43	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

GAST scoring against the MRSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GAST scored	9.2 #23	14.0 #8	23.2 #12	11.3 #6	2.0 #138	13.3 #68
MRSH allowed	9.1 #132	8.7 #98	17.9 #123	8.0 #119	4.9 #39	12.9 #94

MRSH scoring against the GAST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MRSH scored	5.4 #87	5.7 #114	11.1 #104	3.9 #116	6.7 #73	10.6 #101
GAST allowed	7.3 #118	6.3 #56	13.7 #95	6.0 #87	4.3 #25	10.3 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.