Arkansas State @ Louisiana Tech: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Louisiana Tech · Conference game

Arkansas State

3-4 · Power #103

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Louisiana Tech

4-2 · Power #83

projected

ARST 28%

72% LT

Spread

—

Total

—

model 53.5

Model line

LT -8.5

LT 72% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LLWLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—
LT WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	—

Venue/role: ARST away; LT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST UUUOU	3-4	43%	3-4
LT OOOOU	5-1	83%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
LT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arkansas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs TROY	W23–10WU

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ GASO	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARST−10.2 →−9.1▲ 1.1#103

LT−8.8 →−3.6▲ 5.2#83

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ARST

Longer bar = better

#64

Offense

Even

#63

#107

Defense

LT better ▶

#57

+0.4 #43

Turnovers

LT better ▶

+1.0 #10

62 plays #115

Pace

LT faster ▶

65 plays #86

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARST has the ball

Even matchup

	ARST off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	27.4 #81	24.5 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #64	5.42 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #76	+0.04 #45	LT
Success rate	47% #36	38% #40	Even

When LT has the ball

Advantage: LT offense

	LT off	ARST def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #43	26.6 #95	LT
Yards / play	6.05 #55	6.14 #116	LT
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	+0.15 #100	LT
Success rate	42% #84	45% #115	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARST scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARST scored	2.3 #131	12.9 #17	15.1 #69	5.9 #76	6.4 #82	12.3 #87
LT allowed	4.5 #62	3.8 #15	8.3 #26	7.5 #111	8.7 #121	16.2 #127

LT scoring against the ARST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	5.8 #79	11.5 #27	17.3 #46	7.0 #43	9.0 #29	16.0 #33
ARST allowed	4.0 #46	9.9 #115	13.9 #96	6.6 #99	6.1 #65	12.7 #92

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.