Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Louisiana · Conference game
2-5 · Power #116
20
projected
@
5-2 · Power #81
31
projected
CCU 18%
82% UL
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 50.5
Model line
UL -12.5
UL 82% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Louisiana 82%
Projected CCU 20 – UL 31 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
UL -12.5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 50.5
How the model gets there (points from UL’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadUL rating edge+9.6+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.6=Model marginUL by 12.7
TotalScoring ratings50.5=Model total50.5

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CCU−12.9 →−12.1▲ 0.8#115
UL−10.9 →−3.0▲ 7.9#78
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CCU
Longer bar = better
UL
#82
Offense
Even
#77
#111
Defense
UL better ▶
#42
+0.6 #32
Turnovers
Even
+0.6 #31
65 plays #84
Pace
Even
66 plays #71
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When CCU has the ball
Advantage: UL defense
CCU offUL defEdge
Points / game 26.1 #88 19.3 #34 UL
Yards / play 5.91 #66 4.98 #38 UL
PPA / play +0.13 #75 −0.03 #18 UL
Success rate 40% #97 42% #77 Even
When UL has the ball
Advantage: UL offense
UL offCCU defEdge
Points / game 30.0 #66 25.9 #92 UL
Yards / play 5.70 #85 6.27 #119 UL
PPA / play +0.12 #82 +0.16 #106 UL
Success rate 43% #75 47% #126 UL

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
CCU scoring against the UL defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
CCU scored
3.9
#104
11.3
#32
15.1
#69
5.4
#87
5.6
#107
11.0
#95
UL allowed
1.0
#2
8.3
#85
9.3
#37
2.3
#16
7.7
#99
10.0
#51
UL scoring against the CCU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
UL scored
4.9
#93
10.1
#50
15.0
#72
6.4
#60
8.6
#38
15.0
#40
CCU allowed
6.9
#112
5.6
#36
12.4
#77
4.4
#59
9.0
#123
13.4
#101

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
UL +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
CCU7d
UL8d
UL +1 day
Tempo
Average 131 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.