South Alabama @ Southern Miss: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

South Alabama

4-3 · Power #101

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #127

projected

USA 66%

34% USM

Spread

—

Total

—

model 63.5

Model line

USA -5.5

USA 66% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	—
USM LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: USA away; USM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOOOU	5-2	71%	4-3
USM UOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
USM	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs APP	W48–14

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ ODU	L13–17L

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USA 3–0 USM USA leads · 3 games since 2023 · USA has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Southern Miss 35 @ South Alabama 42	USM -2.5	USA W
Nov 23 2024	South Alabama 35 @ Southern Miss 14	USA -24.5	USM W
Oct 17 2023	Southern Miss 3 @ South Alabama 55	USA -18.5	USA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−9.6 →−8.6▲ 1.0#101

USM−8.2 →−16.0▼ 7.8#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

USA

Longer bar = better

USM

#58

Offense

◀ USA better

#93

#130

Defense

USM better ▶

#113

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

◀ USA better

−0.5 #107

72 plays #15

Pace

◀ USA faster

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #36	32.7 #126	USA
Yards / play	5.88 #68	6.00 #109	USA
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.21 #118	USA
Success rate	42% #79	44% #97	Even

When USM has the ball

Advantage: USM offense

	USM off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #97	32.4 #125	USM
Yards / play	5.79 #76	6.89 #135	USM
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	+0.24 #123	Even
Success rate	42% #86	51% #136	USM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USA scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	11.6 #8	9.6 #60	21.1 #19	7.6 #35	6.4 #82	14.0 #56
USM allowed	10.7 #136	9.0 #102	19.7 #134	6.7 #100	6.3 #72	13.0 #96

USM scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	1.7 #135	8.8 #75	10.5 #113	9.2 #13	4.5 #121	13.7 #63
USA allowed	5.0 #75	9.3 #107	14.3 #98	9.0 #131	9.1 #126	18.1 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.