Troy @ South Alabama: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at South Alabama · Conference game

Troy

3-3 · Power #98

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

South Alabama

4-3 · Power #101

projected

TROY 45%

55% USA

Spread

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Total

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model 58

Model line

USA -1.5

USA 55% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	—
USA LLWWL	4-3	57%	2-1	—

Venue/role: TROY away; USA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3
USA OOOOU	5-2	71%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
USA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Troy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs GASO	W28–20WU
Nov 28	@ ARST	L10–23LU

South Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ USM	W42–35WO
Nov 27	vs APP	W48–14

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

TROY 10–4 USA TROY leads · 14 games since 2012 · TROY has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	South Alabama 24 @ Troy 31	USA -2.5	TROY W
Oct 15 2024	Troy 9 @ South Alabama 25	USA -8.5	USA W
Nov 2 2023	South Alabama 10 @ Troy 28	TROY -7	TROY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−8.5 →−7.8▲ 0.7#97

USA−9.6 →−8.6▲ 1.0#101

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TROY

Longer bar = better

USA

#88

Offense

USA better ▶

#58

#76

Defense

◀ TROY better

#130

0.0 #78

Turnovers

USA better ▶

+1.0 #11

70 plays #32

Pace

USA faster ▶

72 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: TROY offense

	TROY off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #96	32.4 #125	TROY
Yards / play	5.75 #81	6.89 #135	TROY
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	+0.24 #123	TROY
Success rate	42% #83	51% #136	TROY

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #36	25.5 #83	USA
Yards / play	5.88 #68	5.61 #85	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	+0.07 #66	Even
Success rate	42% #79	41% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	9.2 #22	8.0 #88	17.2 #49	3.7 #122	3.5 #134	7.2 #136
USA allowed	5.0 #75	9.3 #107	14.3 #98	9.0 #131	9.1 #126	18.1 #132

USA scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	11.6 #8	9.6 #60	21.1 #19	7.6 #35	6.4 #82	14.0 #56
TROY allowed	4.7 #68	8.3 #88	13.0 #81	8.5 #127	4.0 #18	12.5 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.