Louisiana Tech @ Troy: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Troy · Conference game

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Louisiana Tech

4-2 · Power #83

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Troy

3-3 · Power #98

projected

LT 55%

45% TROY

Spread

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Total

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model 50.5

Model line

LT -1.5

LT 55% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LT WWWLW	5-1	83%	3-0	—
TROY LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: LT away; TROY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT OOOOU	5-1	83%	4-2
TROY UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisiana Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs USM	W30–20WU
Nov 21	vs ARST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ GASO	No meeting since 2023

Troy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ USA	W31–24WO
Nov 21	vs GASO	W28–20WU
Nov 28	@ ARST	L10–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−8.8 →−3.6▲ 5.2#83

TROY−8.5 →−7.8▲ 0.7#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

TROY

#63

Offense

◀ LT better

#88

#57

Defense

◀ LT better

#76

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ LT better

0.0 #78

65 plays #86

Pace

TROY faster ▶

70 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Even matchup

	LT off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #43	25.5 #83	LT
Yards / play	6.05 #55	5.61 #85	LT
PPA / play	+0.15 #71	+0.07 #66	Even
Success rate	42% #84	41% #69	Even

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: LT defense

	TROY off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #96	24.5 #75	LT
Yards / play	5.75 #81	5.42 #69	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	+0.04 #45	LT
Success rate	42% #83	38% #40	LT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LT scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	5.8 #79	11.5 #27	17.3 #46	7.0 #43	9.0 #29	16.0 #33
TROY allowed	4.7 #68	8.3 #88	13.0 #81	8.5 #127	4.0 #18	12.5 #87

TROY scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	9.2 #22	8.0 #88	17.2 #49	3.7 #122	3.5 #134	7.2 #136
LT allowed	4.5 #62	3.8 #15	8.3 #26	7.5 #111	8.7 #121	16.2 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.