North Carolina @ UConn: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at UConn

Kickoff forecast56°F12 mphDryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

4-2 · Power #47

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

UConn

3-3 · Power #93

projected

UNC 75%

25% CONN

Spread

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Total

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model 49

Model line

UNC -9.5

UNC 75% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LLWWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—
CONN LWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: UNC away; CONN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2
CONN UOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs LOU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ UVA	L16–17WU
Nov 28	vs NCSU	L19–42LO

UConn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs JMU	L6–44LO
Nov 21	vs ODU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ WYO	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNC 0–1 CONN CONN leads · 1 game since 2023 · CONN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2024	UConn 27 @ North Carolina 14	UNC -1.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#48

CONN−4.3 →−5.3▼ 1.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UNC

Longer bar = better

CONN

#82

Offense

CONN better ▶

#36

#51

Defense

◀ UNC better

#85

−0.3 #98

Turnovers

CONN better ▶

0.0 #71

58 plays #137

Pace

CONN faster ▶

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	25.2 #79	CONN
Yards / play	5.73 #83	5.63 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.09 #71	Even
Success rate	45% #52	44% #100	UNC

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #29	19.2 #34	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #16	4.96 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #44	+0.02 #41	Even
Success rate	44% #56	43% #92	CONN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.0 #35	6.7 #103	14.7 #76	5.0 #96	3.8 #130	8.8 #126
CONN allowed	5.0 #74	8.5 #90	13.5 #92	6.3 #93	4.0 #18	10.3 #58

CONN scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	12.8 #2	7.3 #95	20.2 #25	8.0 #27	6.3 #85	14.3 #52
UNC allowed	5.7 #89	3.3 #14	9.0 #34	3.0 #31	7.2 #96	10.2 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.