Florida State @ Boston College: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Boston College · Conference game

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Florida State

3-4 · Power #40

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Boston College

3-3 · Power #79

projected

FSU 74%

26% BC

Spread

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Total

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model 51.5

Model line

FSU -9

FSU 74% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU WLWLW	3-3-1	50%	2-1	—
BC WLWWW	4-2	67%	3-1	—

Venue/role: FSU away; BC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OUUOO	3-4	43%	3-4
BC UUUUO	1-5	17%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	4-6 40%
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Florida State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 13	@ PITT	L31–34LO
Nov 21	vs NCSU	L11–21LU
Nov 27	vs FLA	L21–40LO

Boston College

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ ND	L10–25WU
Nov 21	vs SYR	W34–12WU
Nov 28	@ MIA	L20–45LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FSU 1–1 BC Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BC has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 2 2024	Boston College 28 @ Florida State 13	FSU -16.5	BC W
Sep 16 2023	Florida State 31 @ Boston College 29	FSU -25.5	BC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+11.5 →+7.3▼ 4.2#40

BC−3.2 →−3.2–#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FSU

Longer bar = better

#49

Offense

◀ FSU better

#114

#116

Defense

BC better ▶

#49

−0.6 #114

Turnovers

BC better ▶

+0.2 #61

65 plays #89

Pace

Even

65 plays #87

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Even matchup

	FSU off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #55	23.0 #61	Even
Yards / play	6.42 #39	4.96 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.22 #41	+0.03 #42	Even
Success rate	44% #61	40% #58	Even

When BC has the ball

Even matchup

	BC off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #117	27.9 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #98	6.34 #122	BC
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.25 #126	Even
Success rate	39% #118	44% #109	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	7.4 #44	9.3 #63	16.7 #54	7.4 #37	6.4 #82	13.9 #60
BC allowed	3.5 #41	5.7 #37	9.2 #35	6.0 #88	7.8 #103	13.8 #110

BC scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.8 #39	2.7 #138	10.5 #113	4.2 #112	5.7 #103	9.8 #112
FSU allowed	3.4 #39	9.7 #111	13.1 #84	4.4 #59	8.1 #112	12.6 #89

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.