Boston College @ Duke: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Duke · Conference game

Kickoff forecast73°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Boston College

3-3 · Power #79

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

Duke

5-2 · Power #41

projected

BC 17%

83% DUKE

Spread

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Total

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model 43.5

Model line

DUKE -13.5

DUKE 83% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—
DUKE WWLLW	5-2	71%	3-1	—

Venue/role: BC away; DUKE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UUUUO	1-5	17%	3-3
DUKE UOOUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston College

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs FSU	W28–13WU
Nov 14	@ ND	L10–25WU
Nov 21	vs SYR	W34–12WU

Duke

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ NCSU	W45–33WO
Nov 14	@ MIA	L31–53LO
Nov 20	vs CLEM	W46–45WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−3.2 →−3.2–#80

DUKE+3.8 →+6.7▲ 2.9#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

DUKE

#114

Offense

DUKE better ▶

#55

#49

Defense

Even

#43

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #48

65 plays #87

Pace

DUKE faster ▶

68 plays #57

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: DUKE defense

	BC off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #117	16.0 #18	DUKE
Yards / play	5.49 #98	4.90 #31	DUKE
PPA / play	0.00 #121	+0.07 #61	DUKE
Success rate	39% #118	41% #63	DUKE

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	29.9 #67	23.0 #61	Even
Yards / play	6.29 #48	4.96 #35	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #32	+0.03 #42	Even
Success rate	43% #72	40% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BC scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.8 #39	2.7 #138	10.5 #113	4.2 #112	5.7 #103	9.8 #112
DUKE allowed	5.9 #98	5.9 #45	11.7 #65	1.4 #7	2.9 #6	4.3 #2

DUKE scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	5.0 #91	10.3 #46	15.3 #68	6.4 #60	8.1 #49	14.6 #47
BC allowed	3.5 #41	5.7 #37	9.2 #35	6.0 #88	7.8 #103	13.8 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.