Duke @ Miami: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Miami · Conference game

Duke

4-2 · Power #43

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Miami

6-0 · Power #3

projected

DUKE 6%

94% MIA

Spread

MIA -21

Total

55.5

model 54

Spread edge

MIA by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIA -21

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIA -21

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now55.5

Line context

Home favorites of 20–22 since 2023: won 91%, covered 45% (98 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIA -21

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 21-point home favorite against DUKE, the favorite won 9, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 20.3; 61.6 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA vs DUKE 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-21	53–31	W	O55.5
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	ORE vs WSU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	38–24	L	O60.5
Very close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Very close	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & spread	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5
Very close	ORE vs ILL 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-22.5	38–9	W	U54
Very close	MIA vs FSU 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-20.5	43–35	L	O57.5
Close	UGA vs AUB 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-19.5	24–27	L	O50.5
Close	PSU vs ILL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-19.5	21–7	L	U48.5
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	41–3	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWWLL	4-2	67%	1-1	1-0
MIA WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	4-2

Venue/role: DUKE away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUOOU	3-3	50%	4-2
MIA OUOOO	5-1	83%	6-0

In 1386 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Duke

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs CLEM	W46–45WO
Nov 28	@ WAKE	W49–32WO

Miami

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs VT	W34–17LO
Nov 28	vs BC	W45–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DUKE 0–1 MIA MIA leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	Duke 31 @ Miami 53	MIA -19.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+3.8 →+6.4▲ 2.6#41

MIA+21.1 →+24.1▲ 3.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

DUKE

Longer bar = better

MIA

#52

Offense

MIA better ▶

#45

Defense

MIA better ▶

#19

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.8 #15

71 plays #28

Pace

Even

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	DUKE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #54	14.0 #7	MIA
Yards / play	6.26 #49	4.65 #22	MIA
PPA / play	+0.23 #32	−0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	43% #72	37% #25	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #1	16.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	8.07 #1	4.97 #37	MIA
PPA / play	+0.44 #1	+0.07 #61	MIA
Success rate	54% #1	41% #63	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.7 #93	12.0 #25	16.7 #55	7.0 #43	8.0 #49	15.0 #40
MIA allowed	2.7 #16	3.3 #14	6.0 #7	2.2 #13	4.7 #34	6.8 #12

MIA scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #12	16.8 #1	27.8 #1	10.5 #10	7.7 #55	18.2 #15
DUKE allowed	5.7 #89	5.8 #45	11.5 #64	1.7 #7	2.8 #6	4.5 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.