Boston College @ Miami: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Miami · Conference game

Boston College

3-3 · Power #79

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Miami

6-0 · Power #3

projected

BC 1%

99% MIA

Spread

—

Total

—

model 49.5

Model line

MIA -32.5

MIA 99% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BC WLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—
MIA WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BC away; MIA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BC UUUUO	1-5	17%	3-3
MIA OUOOO	5-1	83%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BC	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Boston College

No more games this season.

Miami

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BC 0–1 MIA MIA leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 24 2023	Miami 45 @ Boston College 20	MIA -10	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BC−3.2 →−3.2–#80

MIA+21.1 →+24.1▲ 3.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

MIA

#114

Offense

MIA better ▶

#49

Defense

MIA better ▶

#19

+0.2 #61

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+0.8 #15

65 plays #87

Pace

MIA faster ▶

69 plays #40

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BC has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	BC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #117	14.0 #7	MIA
Yards / play	5.49 #98	4.65 #21	MIA
PPA / play	0.00 #121	−0.02 #21	MIA
Success rate	39% #118	37% #25	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	BC def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #1	23.0 #61	MIA
Yards / play	8.07 #1	4.96 #35	MIA
PPA / play	+0.44 #1	+0.03 #42	MIA
Success rate	54% #1	40% #58	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BC scored	7.8 #39	2.7 #138	10.5 #113	4.2 #112	5.7 #103	9.8 #112
MIA allowed	2.7 #15	3.3 #13	6.0 #7	2.2 #13	4.7 #32	6.8 #12

MIA scoring against the BC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #12	16.8 #1	27.8 #1	10.5 #10	7.7 #54	18.2 #15
BC allowed	3.5 #41	5.7 #37	9.2 #35	6.0 #88	7.8 #103	13.8 #110

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.