Pittsburgh @ California: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at California · Conference game

Pittsburgh

5-2 · Power #39

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

California

3-4 · Power #85

projected

PITT 74%

26% CAL

Spread

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Total

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model 52

Model line

PITT -9

PITT 74% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PITT WWWLL	4-3	57%	1-1	—
CAL LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-4	—

Venue/role: PITT away; CAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PITT UUOUO	3-4	43%	5-2
CAL UUOUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PITT	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
CAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh

No more games this season.

California

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PITT 4–2 CAL PITT leads · 6 games since 1955 · PITT has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	California 15 @ Pittsburgh 17	PITT -3.5	CAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PITT+6.4 →+7.6▲ 1.2#39

CAL−0.3 →−4.7▼ 4.4#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

PITT

Longer bar = better

CAL

#61

Offense

◀ PITT better

#116

#23

Defense

◀ PITT better

#90

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ PITT better

+0.1 #66

71 plays #19

Pace

Even

71 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PITT has the ball

Advantage: PITT offense

	PITT off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	32.9 #45	27.7 #105	PITT
Yards / play	6.30 #47	5.96 #106	PITT
PPA / play	+0.13 #77	+0.15 #99	PITT
Success rate	43% #74	39% #49	CAL

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: PITT defense

	CAL off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	16.4 #22	PITT
Yards / play	5.35 #110	5.03 #43	PITT
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	−0.02 #19	PITT
Success rate	38% #126	34% #8	PITT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PITT scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	10.1 #17	9.6 #60	19.7 #27	6.9 #49	6.3 #88	13.1 #74
CAL allowed	4.4 #59	13.4 #134	17.9 #123	2.9 #29	7.0 #89	9.9 #49

CAL scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.1 #48	5.3 #118	12.4 #98	5.4 #88	6.0 #94	11.4 #92
PITT allowed	3.0 #30	6.9 #66	9.9 #47	2.0 #11	4.6 #30	6.6 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.