Stanford @ California: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at California · Conference game

Stanford

3-4 · Power #97

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

California

3-4 · Power #85

projected

STAN 32%

68% CAL

Spread

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Total

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model 53.5

Model line

CAL -6.5

CAL 68% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-3	—
CAL LLLWL	2-5	29%	1-4	—

Venue/role: STAN away; CAL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UOOOU	5-2	71%	3-4
CAL UUOUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Stanford

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs SMU	L10–34LU

California

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs PITT	L15–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

STAN 54–45 CAL (6 tied) STAN leads · 105 games since 1918 · STAN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	California 10 @ Stanford 31	CAL -4.5	STAN W
Nov 23 2024	Stanford 21 @ California 24	CAL -15.5	STAN W
Nov 18 2023	California 27 @ Stanford 15	CAL -6.5	CAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−2.6 →−7.9▼ 5.3#98

CAL−0.3 →−4.7▼ 4.4#88

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

STAN

Longer bar = better

CAL

#105

Offense

Even

#116

#131

Defense

CAL better ▶

#90

0.0 #73

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #66

65 plays #83

Pace

CAL faster ▶

71 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Even matchup

	STAN off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	18.3 #127	27.7 #105	CAL
Yards / play	5.33 #110	5.96 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #69	+0.15 #99	STAN
Success rate	39% #114	39% #49	CAL

When CAL has the ball

Even matchup

	CAL off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	23.9 #100	36.6 #133	CAL
Yards / play	5.35 #109	6.50 #128	Even
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.31 #137	Even
Success rate	38% #126	47% #124	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	2.4 #125	5.3 #118	7.7 #129	6.7 #52	3.9 #125	10.6 #101
CAL allowed	4.4 #59	13.4 #134	17.9 #123	2.9 #29	7.0 #89	9.9 #49

CAL scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	7.1 #48	5.3 #118	12.4 #98	5.4 #87	6.0 #94	11.4 #92
STAN allowed	7.6 #122	11.7 #126	19.3 #131	7.0 #105	10.3 #133	17.3 #128

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.