Ball State @ Ohio: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Tue, Nov 17, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Ohio · Conference game

Ball State

2-5 · Power #132

projected

Tue 7:00 PM ET

Ohio

5-2 · Power #96

projected

BALL 15%

85% OHIO

Spread

—

Total

—

model 54.5

Model line

OHIO -15

OHIO 85% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LLWWW	4-3	57%	2-3	—
OHIO WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—

Venue/role: BALL away; OHIO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OUOOO	6-1	86%	2-5
OHIO OUUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
OHIO	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs CMU	L34–37WO

Ohio

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs TOL	W24–7WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BALL 1–1 OHIO Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BALL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Ohio 14 @ Ball State 20	OHIO -14.5	BALL W
Nov 29 2024	Ball State 21 @ Ohio 42	OHIO -17.5	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−17.4 →−18.3▼ 0.9#132

OHIO−5.6 →−7.1▼ 1.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BALL

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#111

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#50

#128

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#74

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #99

63 plays #101

Pace

Even

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	BALL off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	22.1 #56	OHIO
Yards / play	5.14 #117	5.51 #76	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.14 #96	Even
Success rate	39% #119	41% #68	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #63	37.9 #135	OHIO
Yards / play	5.79 #76	6.66 #131	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.22 #37	+0.29 #134	OHIO
Success rate	48% #24	44% #110	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.4 #114	5.9 #113	9.3 #122	4.1 #113	5.7 #101	9.9 #110
OHIO allowed	4.0 #46	5.3 #31	9.3 #38	6.0 #87	6.4 #77	12.4 #86

OHIO scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.9 #55	9.7 #53	16.6 #57	6.4 #61	6.7 #73	13.1 #74
BALL allowed	7.7 #124	10.4 #120	18.1 #127	7.0 #105	11.7 #137	18.7 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.