Toledo @ Ohio: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ohio · Conference game

Toledo

5-2 · Power #75

projected

Fri 12:00 PM ET

Ohio

5-2 · Power #96

projected

TOL 58%

42% OHIO

Spread

—

Total

—

model 53

Model line

TOL -3

TOL 58% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LWLLW	3-3-1	50%	1-1-1	—
OHIO WLLWW	4-3	57%	2-1	—

Venue/role: TOL away; OHIO home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2
OHIO OUUUO	4-3	57%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
OHIO	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

No more games this season.

Ohio

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TOL 0–1 OHIO OHIO leads · 1 game since 2023 · OHIO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 20 2024	Ohio 24 @ Toledo 7	OHIO -0.5	OHIO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+1.0 →−2.4▼ 3.4#75

OHIO−5.6 →−7.1▼ 1.5#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TOL

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#34

Offense

◀ TOL better

#50

#28

Defense

◀ TOL better

#74

0.0 #80

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−0.4 #99

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ TOL faster

64 plays #94

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #27	22.1 #56	TOL
Yards / play	6.69 #20	5.51 #76	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	+0.14 #96	TOL
Success rate	44% #59	41% #68	Even

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	OHIO off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #63	23.6 #67	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #76	4.58 #16	TOL
PPA / play	+0.22 #37	−0.01 #23	Even
Success rate	48% #24	34% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.3 #70	10.7 #38	17.0 #51	8.9 #16	9.4 #22	18.3 #14
OHIO allowed	4.0 #46	5.3 #31	9.3 #38	6.0 #87	6.4 #77	12.4 #86

OHIO scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	6.9 #55	9.7 #53	16.6 #57	6.4 #61	6.7 #73	13.1 #74
TOL allowed	5.6 #88	5.7 #41	11.3 #56	3.7 #40	7.7 #99	11.4 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.