Tulane @ South Florida: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at South Florida · Conference game

Tulane

3-3 · Power #86

projected

Fri 12:00 AM ET

South Florida

5-2 · Power #76

projected

TULN 36%

64% USF

Spread

—

Total

—

model 43.5

Model line

USF -5

USF 64% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TULN LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	—
USF WLLLW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TULN away; USF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OOUUU	2-4	33%	3-3
USF OUUOU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
USF	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tulane

No more games this season.

South Florida

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TULN 1–0 USF TULN leads · 1 game since 2023 · TULN has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	South Florida 10 @ Tulane 45	TULN -5.5	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TULN+2.5 →−4.3▼ 6.8#85

USF+8.1 →−2.8▼ 10.9#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TULN

Longer bar = better

USF

#111

Offense

USF better ▶

#76

#75

Defense

USF better ▶

#46

+0.3 #53

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #46

59 plays #128

Pace

Even

59 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: USF defense

	TULN off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #116	15.1 #13	USF
Yards / play	5.61 #89	5.07 #48	USF
PPA / play	+0.06 #102	+0.01 #37	USF
Success rate	33% #137	42% #87	USF

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	26.6 #87	21.7 #52	TULN
Yards / play	5.48 #100	5.94 #104	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #78	+0.09 #70	Even
Success rate	47% #37	42% #75	USF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TULN scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	2.3 #129	8.3 #80	10.7 #111	2.8 #127	7.0 #65	9.8 #112
USF allowed	2.7 #18	5.7 #41	8.4 #29	1.9 #10	4.9 #39	6.7 #11

USF scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	5.9 #76	4.3 #131	10.1 #115	5.0 #96	11.4 #6	16.4 #27
TULN allowed	4.5 #62	6.8 #64	11.3 #60	3.5 #38	6.8 #87	10.3 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.