Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Memphis · Conference game
2-5 · Power #104
22
projected
@
6-2 · Power #62
36
projected
TEM 13%
87% MEM
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 59
Model line
MEM -15.5
MEM 87% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Memphis 87%
Projected TEM 22 – MEM 36 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
MEM -15.5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 59
How the model gets there (points from MEM’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadMEM rating edge+12.3+Home field+2.5+Travel+0.8=Model marginMEM by 15.6
TotalScoring ratings58.9=Model total58.9

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TEM−7.3 →−9.4▼ 2.1#105
MEM+1.4 →+2.0▲ 0.6#61
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TEM
Longer bar = better
MEM
#56
Offense
MEM better ▶
#26
#117
Defense
MEM better ▶
#66
0.0 #74
Turnovers
MEM better ▶
+0.5 #38
59 plays #131
Pace
MEM faster ▶
71 plays #22
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TEM has the ball
Even matchup
TEM offMEM defEdge
Points / game 25.7 #90 23.8 #70 Even
Yards / play 6.57 #27 5.85 #101 TEM
PPA / play +0.21 #42 +0.07 #57 Even
Success rate 43% #66 38% #36 MEM
When MEM has the ball
Advantage: MEM offense
MEM offTEM defEdge
Points / game 36.1 #28 28.0 #108 MEM
Yards / play 7.17 #8 6.17 #118 MEM
PPA / play +0.19 #49 +0.21 #119 MEM
Success rate 49% #19 46% #121 MEM

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
TEM scoring against the MEM defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TEM scored
6.9
#55
7.3
#97
14.1
#82
3.9
#116
6.9
#68
10.7
#99
MEM allowed
2.9
#29
10.5
#122
13.4
#89
5.5
#81
4.9
#42
10.4
#62
MEM scoring against the TEM defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
MEM scored
5.1
#90
9.8
#52
14.9
#74
11.3
#7
9.1
#28
20.4
#7
TEM allowed
6.4
#107
4.9
#26
11.3
#56
6.4
#98
9.3
#127
15.7
#125

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
MEM +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
TEM7d
MEM6d
TEM +1 day
Tempo
Average 130 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.