Mississippi State @ Ole Miss: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Fri, Nov 27, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Mississippi State

4-2 · Power #29

projected

Fri 12:00 PM ET

Ole Miss

5-1 · Power #12

projected

MSST 17%

83% MISS

Spread

MISS -14.5

Total

57.5

model 64.5

Spread edge

MSST by 4.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMISS -14.5

Total57.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMISS -14.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now57.5

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 60% (156 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMISS -14.5

Total57.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 14.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.2 against an average line of 13.6; 56.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	TCU vs COLO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-13.5	35–21	W	U57
Very close	OU vs WVU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	59–20	W	O59.5
Very close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Very close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Very close	MISS vs SC 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13	30–14	W	U55.5
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Close	MISS vs ARK 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-13	27–20	L	U62
Close	USC vs RUTG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.75	42–20	W	O56.25
Close	ISU vs TTU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	22–23	L	U55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	1-2
MISS LWLWW	3-3	50%	2-1	2-2

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2
MISS UUOOU	3-3	50%	5-1

In 1203 games with totals 53.5–61.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
MISS	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Mississippi State

No more games this season.

Ole Miss

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MSST 0–3 MISS MISS leads · 3 games since 2023 · MISS has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 28 2025	Ole Miss 38 @ Mississippi State 19	MISS -7.5	MISS W
Nov 29 2024	Mississippi State 14 @ Ole Miss 26	MISS -26.5	MSST W
Nov 23 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Mississippi State 7	MISS -10	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+5.6 →+10.5▲ 4.9#29

MISS+18.8 →+17.3▼ 1.5#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

MSST

Longer bar = better

MISS

#41

Offense

MISS better ▶

#19

#101

Defense

Even

#91

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

−0.2 #87

71 plays #26

Pace

◀ MSST faster

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #48	23.8 #71	MSST
Yards / play	6.43 #38	5.58 #79	MSST
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.17 #109	MSST
Success rate	48% #33	44% #104	MSST

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	37.5 #19	28.5 #111	MISS
Yards / play	6.52 #32	5.49 #75	MISS
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	+0.14 #95	MISS
Success rate	51% #8	46% #123	MISS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.3 #20	9.7 #56	19.0 #33	6.0 #71	7.5 #56	13.5 #66
MISS allowed	3.2 #33	2.8 #7	6.0 #7	9.8 #136	8.0 #109	17.8 #130

MISS scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.3 #65	15.3 #3	21.7 #14	4.8 #103	11.0 #7	15.8 #36
MSST allowed	7.3 #118	7.8 #76	15.2 #105	9.2 #132	4.2 #24	13.3 #100

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.