Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Georgia
2-4 · Power #68
15
projected
@
6-1 · Power #4
41
projected
GT 2%
98% UGA
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 56
Model line
UGA -28
UGA 98% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Georgia 98%
Projected GT 15 – UGA 41 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
UGA -28
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 56
How the model gets there (points from UGA’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadUGA rating edge+25.5+Home field+2.5=Model marginUGA by 28.0
TotalScoring ratings55.8=Model total55.8

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
GT+7.5 →+0.5▼ 7.0#68
UGA+22.1 →+23.6▲ 1.5#5
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

GT
Longer bar = better
UGA
#59
Offense
UGA better ▶
#5
#101
Defense
UGA better ▶
#18
−0.7 #117
Turnovers
UGA better ▶
+0.4 #47
62 plays #111
Pace
Even
61 plays #119
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When GT has the ball
Advantage: UGA defense
GT offUGA defEdge
Points / game 26.7 #86 15.9 #16 UGA
Yards / play 6.13 #53 4.32 #7 UGA
PPA / play +0.20 #45 0.00 #34 Even
Success rate 45% #51 35% #16 UGA
When UGA has the ball
Advantage: UGA offense
UGA offGT defEdge
Points / game 43.0 #2 27.2 #101 UGA
Yards / play 7.68 #2 5.68 #91 UGA
PPA / play +0.33 #12 +0.21 #120 UGA
Success rate 53% #3 43% #91 UGA

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
GT scoring against the UGA defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
GT scored
5.7
#84
7.8
#90
13.5
#89
6.8
#51
6.3
#85
13.2
#71
UGA allowed
2.0
#8
6.1
#50
8.1
#23
2.3
#16
5.4
#48
7.7
#19
UGA scoring against the GT defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
UGA scored
12.4
#4
13.0
#16
25.4
#4
7.9
#29
9.7
#18
17.6
#20
GT allowed
4.7
#68
8.3
#87
13.0
#80
7.8
#118
6.3
#73
14.2
#113

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
UGA +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
GT7d
UGA7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 123 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.