Auburn @ Alabama: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Alabama · Conference game

Auburn

4-2 · Power #25

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Alabama

5-2 · Power #5

projected

AUB 21%

79% ALA

Spread

ALA -10

Total

52.5

model 50.5

Spread edge

ALA by 5.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentALA -10

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowALA -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now52.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 76%, covered 43% (159 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentALA -10

Total52.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 10-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 10.3; 54.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-11	28–14	W	U51
Very close	MISS vs FLA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	34–24	L	O53.5
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	SMU vs CAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-12.5	38–6	W	U54.5
Very close	KSU vs ISU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	35–42	L	O46.25
Very close	MIZ vs MSST 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	49–27	W	O50.5
Close	ALA vs LSU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-10	20–9	W	U49.5
Close	WASH vs UTAH 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	35–28	L	O49
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB WLLLW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-2
ALA LWWLL	4-3	57%	2-2	4-3

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; ALA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UOUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
ALA OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2

In 1566 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
ALA	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Auburn

No more games this season.

Alabama

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

AUB 0–3 ALA ALA leads · 3 games since 2023 · ALA has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Alabama 27 @ Auburn 20	ALA -7	P
Nov 30 2024	Auburn 14 @ Alabama 28	ALA -10.5	ALA W
Nov 25 2023	Alabama 27 @ Auburn 24	ALA -13.5	AUB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.9 →+11.8▼ 0.1#24

ALA+20.3 →+23.7▲ 3.4#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

AUB

Longer bar = better

ALA

#91

Offense

ALA better ▶

#23

#52

Defense

Even

#43

+0.3 #50

Turnovers

ALA better ▶

+0.7 #23

71 plays #25

Pace

◀ AUB faster

63 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: ALA defense

	AUB off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	26.8 #84	21.4 #48	ALA
Yards / play	5.58 #91	5.31 #62	ALA
PPA / play	+0.09 #92	−0.01 #28	ALA
Success rate	41% #95	38% #35	ALA

When ALA has the ball

Advantage: ALA offense

	ALA off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #14	21.8 #55	ALA
Yards / play	6.60 #24	5.06 #45	ALA
PPA / play	+0.26 #22	+0.03 #43	ALA
Success rate	48% #32	41% #64	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	6.2 #71	9.2 #67	15.3 #66	6.2 #68	5.3 #112	11.5 #91
ALA allowed	5.7 #92	7.7 #75	13.4 #91	4.3 #54	3.7 #16	8.0 #24

ALA scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	6.9 #55	16.6 #2	23.4 #11	7.0 #43	8.9 #33	15.9 #35
AUB allowed	4.0 #46	5.2 #29	9.2 #35	5.7 #85	7.0 #89	12.7 #91

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.