Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Missouri · Conference game
3-3 · Power #23
19
projected
@
5-2 · Power #19
23
projected
OU 39%
61% MIZ
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 42
Model line
MIZ -4
MIZ 61% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Missouri 61%
Projected OU 19 – MIZ 23 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
MIZ -4
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 42
How the model gets there (points from MIZ’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadMIZ rating edge+1.5+Home field+2.5=Model marginMIZ by 4.0
TotalScoring ratings42.1=Model total42.1

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
OU+15.2 →+12.0▼ 3.2#23
MIZ+13.4 →+13.8▲ 0.4#19
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

OU
Longer bar = better
MIZ
#123
Offense
MIZ better ▶
#65
#14
Defense
◀ OU better
#29
−1.3 #135
Turnovers
MIZ better ▶
+0.7 #19
63 plays #108
Pace
MIZ faster ▶
68 plays #49
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When OU has the ball
Advantage: MIZ defense
OU offMIZ defEdge
Points / game 21.3 #112 19.6 #37 MIZ
Yards / play 4.97 #123 4.86 #27 MIZ
PPA / play −0.06 #133 +0.01 #36 MIZ
Success rate 38% #125 35% #17 MIZ
When MIZ has the ball
Advantage: OU defense
MIZ offOU defEdge
Points / game 31.1 #60 18.2 #29 OU
Yards / play 6.29 #48 4.59 #18 OU
PPA / play +0.17 #60 −0.11 #5 OU
Success rate 41% #91 33% #3 OU

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
OU scoring against the MIZ defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
OU scored
4.0
#98
4.5
#128
8.5
#125
7.2
#39
5.7
#103
12.8
#79
MIZ allowed
5.3
#83
6.0
#47
11.3
#56
2.4
#21
5.9
#61
8.3
#28
MIZ scoring against the OU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
MIZ scored
2.9
#119
14.4
#7
17.3
#47
6.9
#49
7.0
#65
13.9
#61
OU allowed
4.7
#68
6.7
#62
11.3
#60
0.5
#1
6.3
#73
6.8
#12

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
MIZ +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
OU7d
MIZ7d
Even
Tempo
Average 131 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.