Louisville @ Kentucky: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Kentucky

Louisville

4-3 · Power #23

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Kentucky

6-1 · Power #26

projected

LOU 45%

55% UK

Spread

—

Total

—

model 57.5

Model line

UK -1.5

UK 55% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU WLLWL	4-3	57%	0-2	—
UK WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	—

Venue/role: LOU away; UK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUOOO	6-1	86%	4-3
UK OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Louisville

No more games this season.

Kentucky

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

LOU 2–1 UK LOU leads · 3 games since 2023 · LOU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Kentucky 0 @ Louisville 41	UK -1.5	LOU W
Nov 30 2024	Louisville 41 @ Kentucky 14	LOU -3.5	LOU W
Nov 25 2023	Kentucky 38 @ Louisville 31	LOU -7.5	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.5 →+12.4▲ 2.9#22

UK+5.5 →+11.5▲ 6.0#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LOU

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

◀ LOU better

#45

#86

Defense

Even

#79

+0.9 #14

Turnovers

Even

+1.6 #6

63 plays #104

Pace

Even

64 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	38.7 #15	25.9 #91	LOU
Yards / play	7.67 #3	5.25 #58	LOU
PPA / play	+0.32 #15	+0.05 #53	LOU
Success rate	48% #25	45% #113	LOU

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #46	27.4 #102	UK
Yards / play	6.07 #54	5.60 #81	UK
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.10 #80	UK
Success rate	48% #29	42% #82	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	7.9 #38	9.4 #62	17.3 #47	11.4 #4	10.0 #14	21.4 #2
UK allowed	4.9 #73	8.7 #98	13.6 #93	4.3 #54	6.0 #64	10.3 #54

UK scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.0 #75	10.3 #46	16.3 #58	7.0 #43	7.1 #61	14.1 #55
LOU allowed	5.7 #92	10.1 #117	15.9 #110	6.0 #88	5.6 #53	11.6 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.