Kentucky @ Missouri: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Missouri · Conference game

Kentucky

6-1 · Power #26

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Missouri

5-2 · Power #19

projected

UK 34%

66% MIZ

Spread

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Total

—

model 50

Model line

MIZ -6

MIZ 66% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UK WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	—
MIZ LLWWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: UK away; MIZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UK OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1
MIZ UUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
MIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs LOU	L0–41LU

Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs OU	L6–17LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UK 0–1 MIZ MIZ leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIZ has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Missouri 38 @ Kentucky 21	UK -2.5	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UK+5.5 →+11.5▲ 6.0#26

MIZ+13.4 →+13.8▲ 0.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#45

Offense

◀ UK better

#65

#79

Defense

MIZ better ▶

#29

+1.6 #6

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #19

64 plays #95

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

68 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UK has the ball

Even matchup

	UK off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #46	19.6 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #54	4.86 #27	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.01 #36	Even
Success rate	48% #29	35% #17	Even

When MIZ has the ball

Even matchup

	MIZ off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #59	25.9 #91	MIZ
Yards / play	6.29 #49	5.25 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	+0.05 #53	Even
Success rate	41% #91	45% #113	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UK scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.0 #75	10.3 #46	16.3 #58	7.0 #43	7.1 #61	14.1 #55
MIZ allowed	5.3 #83	6.0 #47	11.3 #56	2.4 #21	5.9 #61	8.3 #28

MIZ scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	2.9 #119	14.4 #7	17.3 #47	6.9 #48	7.0 #65	13.9 #60
UK allowed	4.9 #73	8.7 #98	13.6 #93	4.3 #54	6.0 #64	10.3 #54

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.