Arkansas @ Texas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sat, Nov 21, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 12 · at Texas · Conference game

Arkansas

3-4 · Power #57

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Texas

4-2 · Power #8

projected

ARK 5%

95% TEX

Spread

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Total

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model 48

Model line

TEX -22.5

TEX 95% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARK LWLWW	3-4	43%	1-2	—
TEX LLLLL	1-5	17%	1-3	—

Venue/role: ARK away; TEX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARK OUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4
TEX UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
TEX	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arkansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs LSU	L22–23WU

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ TA&M	W27–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ARK 0–2 TEX TEX leads · 2 games since 2023 · TEX has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Arkansas 37 @ Texas 52	TEX -10.5	TEX W
Nov 16 2024	Texas 20 @ Arkansas 10	TEX -13.5	ARK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARK+7.3 →+2.6▼ 4.7#58

TEX+18.4 →+20.5▲ 2.1#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

ARK

Longer bar = better

TEX

#102

Offense

Even

#90

#103

Defense

TEX better ▶

#16

+0.1 #65

Turnovers

◀ ARK better

−0.5 #105

69 plays #46

Pace

◀ ARK faster

67 plays #67

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	ARK off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #115	17.8 #28	TEX
Yards / play	4.99 #121	4.15 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	−0.01 #25	TEX
Success rate	43% #67	34% #10	TEX

When TEX has the ball

Even matchup

	TEX off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #64	26.7 #96	TEX
Yards / play	5.43 #105	6.02 #110	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.20 #113	Even
Success rate	43% #76	43% #94	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ARK scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	3.9 #104	4.3 #131	8.1 #127	6.0 #71	6.9 #68	12.9 #78
TEX allowed	2.7 #16	5.7 #37	8.3 #27	3.8 #41	5.7 #57	9.5 #45

TEX scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #35	7.8 #90	15.8 #65	4.5 #107	9.8 #17	14.3 #52
ARK allowed	5.0 #74	8.6 #94	13.6 #93	6.7 #102	6.4 #77	13.1 #97

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.