Texas @ LSU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at LSU · Conference game

Texas

4-2 · Power #8

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

LSU

5-2 · Power #6

projected

TEX 53%

47% LSU

Spread

TEX -2.5

Total

54.5

model 48

Spread edge

LSU by 7

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTEX -2.5

Total54.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTEX -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now54.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (289 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTEX -2.5

Total54.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 2.5-point road favorite at LSU, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.5; 51.2 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UGA @ MISS 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	10–28	L	U55
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	USC @ PSU 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-1.5	31–23	W	U54.5
Close	TA&M @ TEX 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–27	L	U54.5
Close	CLEM @ GT 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	21–24	L	U51
Close	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-2	31–24	W	P55
Close	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Close	ALA @ MIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–24	P	O50.5
Close	TA&M @ LSU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	49–25	W	O50.5
Close	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-2	21–26	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	1-5
LSU LWLLW	3-4	43%	3-2	—

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; LSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
LSU UUOOU	4-3	57%	5-2

In 1469 games with totals 50.5–58.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
LSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs ARK	W52–37WO
Nov 27	@ TA&M	W27–17WU

LSU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ TENN	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ ARK	W23–22LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+18.4 →+20.5▲ 2.1#8

LSU+12.7 →+22.8▲ 10.1#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

TEX

Longer bar = better

LSU

#90

Offense

LSU better ▶

#20

#16

Defense

Even

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #95

67 plays #67

Pace

LSU faster ▶

79 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: LSU defense

	TEX off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #64	15.9 #17	LSU
Yards / play	5.43 #105	4.28 #5	LSU
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	−0.09 #8	LSU
Success rate	43% #76	32% #2	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Even matchup

	LSU off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	40.4 #7	17.8 #28	LSU
Yards / play	6.36 #43	4.15 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.25 #25	−0.01 #25	Even
Success rate	52% #4	34% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #35	7.8 #90	15.8 #65	4.5 #107	9.8 #17	14.3 #52
LSU allowed	2.9 #23	5.4 #34	8.3 #25	2.4 #21	4.0 #18	6.4 #8

LSU scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	10.3 #16	9.0 #72	19.3 #30	12.7 #1	7.4 #58	20.1 #8
TEX allowed	2.7 #16	5.7 #37	8.3 #27	3.8 #41	5.7 #57	9.5 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.