Wake Forest @ SMU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at SMU · Conference game

Wake Forest

6-1 · Power #20

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

SMU

5-1 · Power #35

projected

WAKE 53%

47% SMU

Spread

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Total

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model 54.5

Model line

WAKE -1

WAKE 53% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WAKE WWWWW	5-2	71%	3-1	—
SMU WLLLP	1-3-2	25%	1-2-1	—

Venue/role: WAKE away; SMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WAKE UUOUU	3-4	43%	6-1
SMU OOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WAKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4-2 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Wake Forest

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ GT	L29–30WO
Nov 28	vs DUKE	L32–49LO

SMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ ND	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ STAN	W34–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WAKE 1–0 SMU WAKE leads · 1 game since 2023 · WAKE has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	SMU 12 @ Wake Forest 13	SMU -5.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WAKE+3.0 →+13.3▲ 10.3#20

SMU+9.9 →+8.8▼ 1.1#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

WAKE

Longer bar = better

SMU

#14

Offense

◀ WAKE better

#31

#46

Defense

Even

#43

+0.1 #63

Turnovers

◀ WAKE better

−0.5 #104

65 plays #77

Pace

SMU faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #20	21.3 #47	WAKE
Yards / play	6.83 #15	4.93 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #3	+0.07 #58	WAKE
Success rate	49% #18	38% #37	Even

When SMU has the ball

Even matchup

	SMU off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #47	19.4 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #13	4.59 #19	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.07 #63	Even
Success rate	49% #20	41% #66	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WAKE scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	9.0 #28	12.3 #20	21.3 #18	8.1 #26	5.9 #96	14.0 #57
SMU allowed	6.8 #111	2.2 #3	9.0 #34	4.0 #49	8.3 #117	12.3 #83

SMU scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.2 #71	13.2 #14	19.3 #28	5.0 #96	8.3 #45	13.3 #68
WAKE allowed	4.0 #46	6.7 #63	10.7 #52	2.3 #16	4.6 #30	6.9 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.