Syracuse @ NC State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at NC State · Conference game

Syracuse

2-4 · Power #70

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

NC State

3-3 · Power #61

projected

SYR 38%

62% NCSU

Spread

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Total

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model 56

Model line

NCSU -4

NCSU 62% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LLLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	—
NCSU WLLWL	2-4	33%	2-2	—

Venue/role: SYR away; NCSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
NCSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ BC	L12–34LU
Nov 28	vs ND	L7–70LO

NC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	@ FSU	W21–11WU
Nov 28	@ UNC	W42–19WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SYR 1–0 NCSU SYR leads · 1 game since 2023 · SYR has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Syracuse 24 @ NC State 17	SYR -1.5	SYR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−3.6 →+0.7▲ 4.3#66

NCSU+6.0 →+2.0▼ 4.0#62

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SYR

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#83

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#52

#76

Defense

◀ SYR better

#109

−0.3 #96

Turnovers

Even

−0.2 #84

81 plays #2

Pace

◀ SYR faster

71 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: SYR offense

	SYR off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #53	27.7 #104	SYR
Yards / play	5.55 #94	6.06 #112	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.21 #115	Even
Success rate	42% #81	44% #106	SYR

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	25.7 #89	NCSU
Yards / play	6.00 #58	5.37 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.08 #69	NCSU
Success rate	44% #58	42% #81	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.7 #61	15.0 #5	21.7 #14	2.5 #131	6.2 #91	8.7 #128
NCSU allowed	2.8 #18	5.7 #37	8.5 #29	9.3 #133	9.8 #131	19.2 #135

NCSU scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #18	10.3 #44	20.2 #26	7.8 #31	5.0 #114	12.8 #78
SYR allowed	5.8 #95	6.3 #56	12.2 #76	4.5 #64	7.8 #103	12.3 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.