NC State @ North Carolina: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at North Carolina · Conference game

NC State

3-3 · Power #61

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

North Carolina

4-2 · Power #47

projected

NCSU 50%

50% UNC

Spread

NCSU -1.5

Total

55.5

model 51.5

Spread edge

UNC by 7.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNCSU -1.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNCSU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now55.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 49% (194 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:25 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNCSU -1.5

Total55.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:25 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 1.5-point road favorite at UNC, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.1 against an average line of 2.2; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC @ DUKE 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–21	L	U55.5
Very close	TCU @ CIN 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	20–13	W	U58.5
Very close	UTSA @ FAU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	36–10	W	U58.5
Very close	TXST @ CCU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.75	23–31	L	U55.5
Very close	UNC @ BC 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	21–41	L	O50.5
Very close	UNC @ NCSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	20–39	L	O55.5
Very close	BAY @ WVU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	49–35	W	O60
Very close	TCU @ HOU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–14	W	U55.5
Very close	DUKE @ CAL 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	45–21	W	O54.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCSU WLLWL	2-4	33%	0-2	1-1
UNC LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	4-1

Venue/role: NCSU away, as favorite; UNC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCSU OOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3
UNC UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 1387 games with totals 51.5–59.5, 50% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCSU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC State

No more games this season.

North Carolina

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NCSU 3–0 UNC NCSU leads · 3 games since 2023 · NCSU has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	North Carolina 19 @ NC State 42	NCSU -7	NCSU W
Nov 30 2024	NC State 35 @ North Carolina 30	UNC -2.5	NCSU W
Nov 25 2023	North Carolina 20 @ NC State 39	UNC -2.5	NCSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NCSU+6.0 →+2.0▼ 4.0#62

UNC−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#48

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NCSU

Longer bar = better

UNC

#52

Offense

◀ NCSU better

#82

#109

Defense

UNC better ▶

#51

−0.2 #84

Turnovers

◀ NCSU better

−0.3 #98

71 plays #21

Pace

◀ NCSU faster

58 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NCSU has the ball

Even matchup

	NCSU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #44	19.2 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.00 #58	4.96 #36	UNC
PPA / play	+0.20 #47	+0.02 #41	Even
Success rate	44% #58	43% #92	NCSU

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	27.7 #104	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #82	6.06 #112	UNC
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.21 #115	UNC
Success rate	45% #52	44% #106	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NCSU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	9.8 #18	10.3 #44	20.2 #26	7.8 #31	5.0 #114	12.8 #78
UNC allowed	5.7 #89	3.3 #13	9.0 #33	3.0 #31	7.2 #96	10.2 #53

UNC scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.0 #34	6.7 #103	14.7 #75	5.0 #95	3.8 #130	8.8 #126
NCSU allowed	2.8 #18	5.7 #37	8.5 #29	9.3 #133	9.8 #131	19.2 #135

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.