Duke @ Wake Forest: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sat, Nov 28, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 13 · at Wake Forest · Conference game

Duke

4-2 · Power #43

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Wake Forest

6-1 · Power #20

projected

DUKE 24%

76% WAKE

Spread

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Total

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model 52

Model line

WAKE -10

WAKE 76% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DUKE WWWLL	4-2	67%	1-1	—
WAKE WWWWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—

Venue/role: DUKE away; WAKE home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DUKE OUOOU	3-3	50%	4-2
WAKE UUOUU	3-4	43%	6-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DUKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
WAKE	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Duke

No more games this season.

Wake Forest

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DUKE 60–40 WAKE (2 tied) DUKE leads · 102 games since 1921 · DUKE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Wake Forest 32 @ Duke 49	DUKE -2.5	DUKE W
Nov 30 2024	Duke 23 @ Wake Forest 17	DUKE -3.5	DUKE W
Nov 2 2023	Wake Forest 21 @ Duke 24	DUKE -6.5	WAKE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DUKE+3.8 →+6.4▲ 2.6#41

WAKE+3.0 →+13.3▲ 10.3#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

DUKE

Longer bar = better

WAKE

#52

Offense

WAKE better ▶

#14

#45

Defense

Even

#46

+0.3 #54

Turnovers

Even

+0.1 #63

71 plays #28

Pace

◀ DUKE faster

65 plays #77

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DUKE has the ball

Even matchup

	DUKE off	WAKE def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #54	19.4 #36	Even
Yards / play	6.26 #49	4.59 #19	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.23 #32	+0.07 #63	DUKE
Success rate	43% #72	41% #66	Even

When WAKE has the ball

Advantage: WAKE offense

	WAKE off	DUKE def	Edge
Points / game	37.4 #20	16.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	6.83 #15	4.97 #37	WAKE
PPA / play	+0.36 #3	+0.07 #61	WAKE
Success rate	49% #18	41% #63	WAKE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

DUKE scoring against the WAKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DUKE scored	4.7 #93	12.0 #25	16.7 #55	7.0 #43	8.0 #49	15.0 #40
WAKE allowed	4.0 #46	6.7 #63	10.7 #52	2.3 #16	4.6 #30	6.9 #14

WAKE scoring against the DUKE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WAKE scored	9.0 #28	12.3 #20	21.3 #18	8.1 #26	5.9 #96	14.0 #57
DUKE allowed	5.7 #89	5.8 #45	11.5 #64	1.7 #7	2.8 #6	4.5 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.