Virginia Tech @ SMU: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Fri, Nov 6, 2026, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at SMU · Conference game

Kickoff forecast69°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

5-2 · Power #45

projected

Fri 7:00 PM ET

SMU

5-1 · Power #35

projected

VT 32%

68% SMU

Spread

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Total

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model 56.5

Model line

SMU -6.5

SMU 68% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WLLLW	4-3	57%	1-2	—
SMU WLLLP	1-3-2	25%	1-2-1	—

Venue/role: VT away; SMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OUOUO	5-2	71%	5-2
SMU OOUUU	2-4	33%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
SMU	8-2 80%	4-4-2 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Virginia Tech

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs STAN	W31–7WU
Nov 21	@ MIA	L17–34WO
Nov 28	vs UVA	L7–27LU

SMU

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs WAKE	L12–13LU
Nov 21	@ ND	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ STAN	W34–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+1.5 →+5.5▲ 4.0#45

SMU+9.9 →+8.8▼ 1.1#35

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

SMU

#38

Offense

Even

#31

#55

Defense

Even

#43

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #104

73 plays #10

Pace

◀ VT faster

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Even matchup

	VT off	SMU def	Edge
Points / game	37.1 #22	21.3 #47	VT
Yards / play	6.22 #50	4.93 #31	Even
PPA / play	+0.23 #36	+0.07 #58	VT
Success rate	46% #44	38% #37	Even

When SMU has the ball

Advantage: SMU offense

	SMU off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #47	21.1 #46	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #13	5.21 #57	SMU
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.10 #73	SMU
Success rate	49% #20	39% #45	SMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VT scoring against the SMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	10.4 #15	14.0 #8	24.4 #7	6.0 #71	6.7 #73	12.7 #82
SMU allowed	6.8 #111	2.2 #3	9.0 #34	4.0 #49	8.3 #117	12.3 #83

SMU scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SMU scored	6.2 #71	13.2 #14	19.3 #28	5.0 #96	8.3 #45	13.3 #68
VT allowed	1.4 #3	6.3 #53	7.7 #18	5.4 #79	8.0 #109	13.4 #101

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.