Miami @ Notre Dame: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Notre Dame

Kickoff forecast49°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Miami

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Notre Dame

6-1 · Power #1

projected

MIA 33%

67% ND

Spread

ND -6.5

Total

54.5

model 57

Spread edge

MIA by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentND -6.5

Total54.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowND -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now54.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (275 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 29, 12:24 AM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentND -6.5

Total54.5

Last updateSep 29, 12:24 AM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 54.5Under 54.5

Bets13% 87%

Money12% 89%

Winner

MIA

Bets14% 86%

Money65% 35%

Money is 51 pts ahead of bets on MIA

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 6.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 5.2; 46.9 points a game (usually 52.4). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE vs IU 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	20–30	L	U51.5
Close	ALA vs MISS 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–10	W	U55.5
Close	ALA vs UGA 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	17–20	L	U51.5
Close	OSU vs PSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	20–12	W	U46.5
Close	PSU vs ORE 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total	-4	24–30	L	O53
Close	ALA vs TEX 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–34	L	O53.5
Close	ND vs IU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-7	27–17	W	U50.5
Close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Close	MICH vs OSU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	30–24	W	O47
Close	TEX vs UGA 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-4	15–30	L	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	—
ND LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	4-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OUOOO	5-1	83%	6-0
ND UOOOO	5-2	71%	6-1

In 1470 games with totals 50.5–58.5, 50% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
ND	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs DUKE	W53–31WO
Nov 21	vs VT	W34–17LO
Nov 28	vs BC	W45–20WO

Notre Dame

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs BC	W25–10LU
Nov 21	vs SMU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ SYR	W70–7WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 1–0 ND MIA leads · 1 game since 2023 · MIA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Aug 31 2025	Notre Dame 24 @ Miami 27	ND -2.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+21.1 →+24.1▲ 3.0#3

ND+24.9 →+26.2▲ 1.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIA

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#13

#19

Defense

Even

+0.8 #15

Turnovers

Even

+2.0 #2

69 plays #40

Pace

Even

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	48.5 #1	13.4 #5	Even
Yards / play	8.07 #1	4.30 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.44 #1	−0.08 #9	Even
Success rate	54% #1	35% #13	Even

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	41.1 #6	14.0 #7	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #33	4.65 #21	Even
PPA / play	+0.36 #5	−0.02 #21	Even
Success rate	51% #9	37% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #12	16.8 #1	27.8 #1	10.5 #10	7.7 #54	18.2 #15
ND allowed	2.4 #14	5.4 #34	7.9 #20	2.7 #26	2.9 #6	5.6 #5

ND scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	11.3 #9	13.7 #11	25.0 #6	6.6 #58	9.6 #21	16.1 #31
MIA allowed	2.7 #15	3.3 #13	6.0 #7	2.2 #13	4.7 #32	6.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.