Air Force @ Army: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Army

Kickoff forecast53°F4 mphgusts 18Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Air Force

5-1 · Power #90

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Army

4-2 · Power #78

projected

AFA 33%

67% ARMY

Spread

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Total

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model 53.5

Model line

ARMY -6

ARMY 67% to win

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Winner

Market

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AFA LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	—
ARMY LPLLW	2-3-1	40%	2-2	—

Venue/role: AFA away; ARMY home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AFA OOUUO	3-3	50%	5-1
ARMY OUOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AFA	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	4-6 40%
ARMY	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Air Force

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs SJSU	W26–16WU
Nov 20	vs UTEP	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ UNM	L3–20LU

Army

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs ECU	L6–28LU
Nov 28	@ RICE	W37–14WO
Dec 12	vs NAVY	L16–17WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

AFA 38–21 ARMY (1 tied) AFA leads · 60 games since 1959 · ARMY has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Army 20 @ Air Force 17	ARMY -1.5	ARMY W
Nov 2 2024	Air Force 3 @ Army 20	ARMY -18.5	AFA W
Nov 4 2023	Army 23 @ Air Force 3	AFA -18.5	ARMY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AFA−15.2 →−5.2▲ 10.0#91

ARMY−10.8 →−3.0▲ 7.8#77

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

AFA

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#52

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#22

#49

Defense

◀ AFA better

#99

+0.5 #35

Turnovers

◀ AFA better

+0.3 #52

72 plays #14

Pace

◀ AFA faster

65 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AFA has the ball

Advantage: AFA offense

	AFA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #62	20.0 #41	ARMY
Yards / play	5.67 #88	6.38 #125	AFA
PPA / play	+0.23 #33	+0.21 #117	AFA
Success rate	49% #23	45% #114	AFA

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	AFA def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #39	19.7 #38	Even
Yards / play	6.55 #28	5.46 #72	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.32 #13	+0.04 #44	ARMY
Success rate	52% #6	38% #42	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AFA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AFA scored	3.3 #116	10.7 #40	14.0 #83	5.2 #92	10.2 #12	15.3 #38
ARMY allowed	5.8 #96	2.2 #3	8.0 #21	6.3 #93	5.7 #57	12.0 #78

ARMY scoring against the AFA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	9.3 #20	7.5 #94	16.8 #52	6.0 #71	12.0 #3	18.0 #18
AFA allowed	2.8 #19	8.0 #80	10.8 #53	4.5 #63	3.3 #10	7.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.