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NCAAF · 2026 · Week 15

Navy vs Army

Sat, Dec 12, 2026, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · Neutral site · Conference game
Navy
2-4 · Power #89
25
projected
vs
Army
4-2 · Power #78
26
projected
NAVY 45%
55% ARMY
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 51.5
Model line
ARMY -2
ARMY 55% to win
Pick this game
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Army 55%
Projected NAVY 25 – ARMY 26 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
ARMY -2
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 51.5
How the model gets there (points from ARMY’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadARMY rating edge+1.8+Neutral site0.0=Model marginARMY by 1.8
TotalScoring ratings51.3=Model total51.3

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NAVY−9.5 →−4.9▲ 4.6#90
ARMY−10.8 →−3.0▲ 7.8#77
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13
NAVY
Longer bar = better
ARMY
#46
Offense
ARMY better ▶
#22
#70
Defense
◀ NAVY better
#99
−1.0 #129
Turnovers
ARMY better ▶
+0.3 #52
65 plays #85
Pace
Even
65 plays #78
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NAVY has the ball
Advantage: NAVY offense
NAVY offARMY defEdge
Points / game 28.2 #77 20.0 #41 ARMY
Yards / play 6.40 #40 6.38 #125 NAVY
PPA / play +0.23 #35 +0.21 #117 NAVY
Success rate 48% #31 45% #114 NAVY
When ARMY has the ball
Advantage: ARMY offense
ARMY offNAVY defEdge
Points / game 34.8 #39 25.8 #90 ARMY
Yards / play 6.55 #28 5.35 #64 ARMY
PPA / play +0.32 #13 +0.13 #93 ARMY
Success rate 52% #6 37% #32 ARMY
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
NAVY scoring against the ARMY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NAVY scored
5.8
#79
8.3
#80
14.2
#81
5.5
#87
8.5
#41
14.0
#57
ARMY allowed
5.8
#96
2.2
#3
8.0
#21
6.3
#93
5.7
#57
12.0
#78
ARMY scoring against the NAVY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ARMY scored
9.3
#20
7.5
#94
16.8
#52
6.0
#71
12.0
#3
18.0
#18
NAVY allowed
4.7
#68
14.5
#137
19.2
#130
3.2
#33
3.5
#12
6.7
#10
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
NAVY15d bye
ARMY15d bye
Even
Tempo
Average 130 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Navy← @ CLT
Army← @ RICE
ESPN game page ↗