Week in numbers
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Biggest Model FavoriteARMY 55%win probability
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
| Moved toward | This week | 2026 | 2024–2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any move | — | 178–153–654% | 789–801–850% |
| 1.5+ pts | — | 111–93–354% | 446–443–450% |
| 3+ pts | — | 61–49–155% | 215–206–251% |
| 5+ pts | — | 18–1358% | 47–4551% |
| 7+ pts | — | 3–175% | 13–765% |
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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| Status | Matchup | Spread | Move | Total | Model | Signal | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 365-359 (50%) and total leans 21-19 (53%) over 2024–26, so treat them as context, not picks.