Fresno State @ Utah State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 9:30 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Utah State · Conference game

Fresno State

4-3 · Power #80

projected

Sat 9:30 PM ET

Utah State

2-4 · Power #95

projected

FRES 46%

54% USU

Spread

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Total

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model 44.5

Model line

USU -1.5

USU 54% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WWWWL	5-2	71%	2-2	—
USU WLWWL	3-3	50%	1-2	—

Venue/role: FRES away; USU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UOUOO	4-3	57%	4-3
USU UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Fresno State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ TXST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs CSU	L21–49LO

Utah State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ SDSU	W41–20WO
Nov 21	@ ORST	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FRES 19–14 USU (1 tied) FRES leads · 34 games since 1952 · USU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Utah State 28 @ Fresno State 17	FRES -1.5	USU W
Oct 13 2023	Fresno State 37 @ Utah State 32	FRES -5.5	USU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.0 →−3.3▲ 0.7#81

USU−6.5 →−6.9▼ 0.4#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

FRES

Longer bar = better

USU

#86

Offense

◀ FRES better

#131

#66

Defense

Even

#56

+1.1 #8

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.8 #124

61 plays #120

Pace

Even

62 plays #112

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: USU defense

	FRES off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	27.6 #80	23.5 #65	Even
Yards / play	5.76 #81	5.13 #52	USU
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.06 #54	USU
Success rate	41% #96	39% #51	USU

When USU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	USU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #136	20.9 #43	FRES
Yards / play	4.99 #122	5.78 #94	FRES
PPA / play	−0.07 #135	+0.04 #47	FRES
Success rate	35% #131	42% #79	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	2.3 #131	10.3 #47	12.6 #96	6.4 #61	8.6 #38	15.0 #40
USU allowed	8.2 #128	9.5 #109	17.7 #122	2.2 #13	3.7 #15	5.8 #6

USU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.3 #129	3.8 #137	6.2 #135	4.7 #105	3.7 #131	8.3 #130
FRES allowed	6.0 #100	7.9 #78	13.9 #96	1.1 #3	5.9 #61	7.0 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.