Texas State @ Oregon State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 10:30 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Oregon State · Conference game

Texas State

3-3 · Power #58

projected

Sat 10:30 PM ET

Oregon State

5-2 · Power #48

projected

TXST 33%

67% ORST

Spread

—

Total

—

model 68

Model line

ORST -6

ORST 67% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LWWLW	3-3	50%	0-2	—
ORST WWWWL	6-1	86%	3-1	—

Venue/role: TXST away; ORST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UOOOO	5-1	83%	3-3
ORST OUOOO	6-1	86%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
ORST	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs FRES	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs WSU	No meeting since 2023

Oregon State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ BOIS	L18–34WU
Nov 21	vs USU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−1.3 →+2.7▲ 4.0#57

ORST−8.0 →+5.5▲ 13.5#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TXST

Longer bar = better

ORST

Offense

Even

#10

#110

Defense

ORST better ▶

#59

−0.8 #126

Turnovers

ORST better ▶

+0.8 #17

78 plays #4

Pace

Even

72 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	ORST def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #9	23.1 #64	TXST
Yards / play	7.24 #6	4.97 #36	TXST
PPA / play	+0.34 #7	+0.10 #75	TXST
Success rate	52% #5	41% #62	TXST

When ORST has the ball

Advantage: ORST offense

	ORST off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	42.7 #3	32.2 #122	ORST
Yards / play	7.03 #9	5.75 #93	ORST
PPA / play	+0.32 #14	+0.17 #110	ORST
Success rate	50% #14	45% #116	ORST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the ORST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	13.3 #1	12.7 #18	26.0 #2	5.7 #83	8.3 #45	14.0 #57
ORST allowed	2.3 #11	7.3 #71	9.6 #41	6.7 #102	6.9 #88	13.6 #105

ORST scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORST scored	11.9 #7	12.3 #20	24.1 #8	9.9 #12	8.7 #36	18.6 #13
TXST allowed	6.3 #105	9.8 #114	16.2 #113	9.7 #135	6.3 #73	16.0 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.