Texas State @ Boise State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 10:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Boise State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast51°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Texas State

3-3 · Power #58

projected

Sat 10:00 PM ET

Boise State

5-1 · Power #37

projected

TXST 22%

78% BOIS

Spread

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Total

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model 66.5

Model line

BOIS -11

BOIS 78% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TXST LWWLW	3-3	50%	0-2	—
BOIS WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	—

Venue/role: TXST away; BOIS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TXST UOOOO	5-1	83%	3-3
BOIS OOUOO	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TXST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
BOIS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ ORST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs FRES	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs WSU	No meeting since 2023

Boise State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ CSU	W49–21WO
Nov 14	vs ORST	W34–18LU
Nov 21	vs SDSU	L7–17LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TXST−1.3 →+2.7▲ 4.0#57

BOIS+2.1 →+8.6▲ 6.5#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TXST

Longer bar = better

BOIS

Offense

◀ TXST better

#28

#110

Defense

BOIS better ▶

#71

−0.8 #126

Turnovers

BOIS better ▶

+0.5 #37

78 plays #4

Pace

◀ TXST faster

71 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #9	22.3 #57	TXST
Yards / play	7.24 #6	6.80 #134	TXST
PPA / play	+0.34 #7	+0.07 #60	TXST
Success rate	52% #5	37% #31	TXST

When BOIS has the ball

Advantage: BOIS offense

	BOIS off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #37	32.2 #122	BOIS
Yards / play	6.36 #41	5.75 #93	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.33 #11	+0.17 #110	BOIS
Success rate	49% #21	45% #116	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TXST scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	13.3 #1	12.7 #18	26.0 #2	5.7 #81	8.3 #45	14.0 #56
BOIS allowed	4.5 #62	8.5 #91	13.0 #81	2.8 #28	6.5 #81	9.3 #41

BOIS scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	9.0 #28	11.5 #27	20.5 #23	6.7 #54	7.8 #53	14.5 #49
TXST allowed	6.3 #105	9.8 #114	16.2 #113	9.7 #135	6.3 #72	16.0 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.