Utah State @ Texas State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Texas State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast79°F8 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Utah State

2-4 · Power #95

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Texas State

3-3 · Power #58

projected

USU 17%

83% TXST

Spread

TXST -13.5

open TXST -9.5

Total

60.5

model 57.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTXST -9.5

CurrentTXST -13.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTXST -9.5

4 → TXST

NowTXST -13.5

4 pts toward Texas State

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Now60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TXST -9.5 · now TXST -13.5 · moved 4 toward TXSTmodel TXST -13.5 matches the line

model TXST -13.5 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: TXST by 4.1 pts (open -9.5, now -13.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 74.6% of the 264 games where the line moved (295 at that gap), but those sides covered 53.1% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 55% (159 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (227 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTXST -9.5

CurrentTXST -13.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:15

Utah State at Texas State: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:35 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 4 points toward Texas State since it opened. Utah State heads to Texas State for a Saturday kickoff at 7:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Texas State 58th and Utah State 95th. That’s about 9.5 points better than Utah State on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Utah State has fallen from 89th to 95th, while Texas State has climbed from 75th to 58th. Kickoff forecast at UFCU Stadium: 78 degrees, dry, wind 7 miles per hour, gusting to 12. Utah State comes off a bye. Utah State games have gone under 5 of 6 times. Texas State games have gone over 5 of 6 times. On offense, Texas State ranks 7th and Utah State 131st. On defense, Utah State ranks 56th and Texas State 110th. Texas State plays at the faster pace. The model has Texas State winning 36 to 22, a 83 percent chance. Texas State is favored by 13.5, up from 9.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 58.5 and sits at 61.5. Our model makes it Texas State by 13.5, with a total near 58. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	USU	TXST	Over	Under	USU	TXST
BetMGMMGM	+13.5-108	-13.5-110	61.5-108	61.5-110	+400	-500
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+13.5-104	-13.5-116	61-115	61-105	+393	-515
BetRiversBetRivers	+13-110	-13-112	61.5-112	61.5-112	+400	-590
BetUSBetUS	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	61-115	61-105	+400	-515
BovadaBovada	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	61-115	61-105	+390	-550
DraftKingsDK	+13.5-102	-13.5-118	60.5-115	60.5-105	+400	-535
FanDuelFD	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	61.5-110	61.5-110	+420	-580
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+13.5+100	-13.5-112	61-114	61-103	+393	-515
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	61.5-110	61.5-110	+380	-526

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	USU	TXST	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	30.5-124	30.5+104
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-120	-7.5+100	30.5-125	30.5+105
FanDuelFD	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	30.5-122	30.5+100

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

USU

TXST

Bets2% 98%

Money6% 94%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TXST as a 13.5-point home favorite against USU, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 15.6 against an average line of 13.9; 57.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCF vs HOU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-15.5	27–13	L	U61.25
Close	FSU vs VT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	34–14	W	U55
Close	WAKE vs STAN 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form	-14.5	57–3	W	O54.5
Close	LIB vs MTSU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & total	-16	42–35	L	O56.5
Close	TXST vs CSU 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-15.5	66–27	W	O69.5
Close	MRSH vs GASO 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar total & season form	-10.5	19–24	L	U62.5
Close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & spread	-14.5	21–14	L	U55
Close	COLO vs STAN 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	43–46	L	O59
Close	KENN vs UTEP 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	33–20	W	P53
Close	SJSU vs WYO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-13	24–14	L	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USU WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-1
TXST LWWLW	3-3	50%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: USU away, as underdog; TXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USU UUUOU	1-5	17%	2-4
TXST UOOOO	5-1	83%	3-3

In 775 games with totals 56.5–64.5, 47% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USU	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	2-8 20%
TXST	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Utah State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs CSU	L37–42WO
Nov 7	vs FRES	W28–17WU
Nov 14	@ SDSU	W41–20WO

Texas State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ BOIS	No meeting since 2023
Nov 7	@ ORST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs FRES	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USU−6.5 →−7.1▼ 0.6#94

TXST−1.3 →+2.5▲ 3.8#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

USU

Longer bar = better

TXST

#131

Offense

TXST better ▶

#56

Defense

◀ USU better

#110

−0.8 #124

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #126

62 plays #112

Pace

TXST faster ▶

78 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USU has the ball

Advantage: TXST defense

	USU off	TXST def	Edge
Points / game	14.5 #136	32.2 #122	Even
Yards / play	4.99 #122	5.75 #93	TXST
PPA / play	−0.07 #135	+0.17 #110	TXST
Success rate	35% #131	45% #116	Even

When TXST has the ball

Advantage: TXST offense

	TXST off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #9	23.5 #65	TXST
Yards / play	7.24 #6	5.13 #52	TXST
PPA / play	+0.34 #7	+0.06 #54	TXST
Success rate	52% #5	39% #51	TXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USU scoring against the TXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	2.3 #129	3.8 #137	6.2 #135	4.7 #105	3.7 #131	8.3 #130
TXST allowed	6.3 #105	9.8 #114	16.2 #113	9.7 #135	6.3 #73	16.0 #126

TXST scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TXST scored	13.3 #1	12.7 #18	26.0 #2	5.7 #83	8.3 #45	14.0 #57
USU allowed	8.2 #128	9.5 #109	17.7 #122	2.2 #13	3.7 #15	5.8 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.