Syracuse @ North Carolina: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at North Carolina · Conference game

Kickoff forecast56°F6 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Syracuse

2-4 · Power #70

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

North Carolina

4-2 · Power #47

projected

SYR 26%

74% UNC

Spread

UNC -9.5

no move since the open

Total

47.5

model 48

Spread edge

SYR by 2

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUNC -9.5

CurrentUNC -9.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUNC -9.5

no move

NowUNC -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Now47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UNC -9.5 · unchangedmodel UNC -7.5

model UNC -7.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 48% (184 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUNC -9.5

CurrentUNC -9.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:04

Syracuse at North Carolina: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:33 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Let’s run the numbers. Syracuse visits North Carolina, Saturday at 7:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have North Carolina 47th and Syracuse 70th. That’s about 4.5 points better than Syracuse on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Syracuse has moved up from 81st to 70th, while North Carolina has climbed from 78th to 47th. Kickoff forecast at Kenan Stadium: 57 degrees, dry, wind 8 miles per hour, gusting to 17. The offenses are close: 83rd and 82nd. North Carolina has the better defense, 51st to 76th. Syracuse plays at the faster pace. Against the spread, Syracuse is 3 and 3 and North Carolina is 4 and 2. The model has North Carolina winning 28 to 19, a 74 percent chance. North Carolina is favored by 9.5. The total opened at 44.5 and sits at 46.5. Our model makes it North Carolina by 7.5, with a total near 47. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SYR	UNC	Over	Under	SYR	UNC
BetMGMMGM	+9.5-108	-9.5-110	47.5-105	47.5-112	+290	-350
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+9.5-110	-9.5-110	47-110	47-110	+296	-370
BetRiversBetRivers	+8.5-112	-8.5-110	46.5-113	46.5-110	+275	-375
BetUSBetUS	+9.5-110	-9.5-110	47-110	47-110	+295	-370
BovadaBovada	+9.5-110	-9.5-110	47-105	47-115	+285	-370
DraftKingsDK	+9.5-115	-9.5-105	47.5-110	47.5-110	+275	-345
FanDuelFD	+9.5-110	-9.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	+290	-375
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+9.5-106	-9.5-106	47-108	47-108	+296	-370
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+9.5-110	-9.5-110	47-110	47-110	+320	-429

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

4 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	SYR	UNC	Over	Under
BetRiversBetRivers	+5.5-121	-5.5-110	23.5-127	23.5-105
BetUSBetUS	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	23.5-111	23.5-109
DraftKingsDK	+4.5-112	-4.5-108	23.5-108	23.5-112
FanDuelFD	+5.5-110	-5.5-110	23.5-115	23.5-105

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

SYR

UNC

Bets3% 97%

Money27% 73%

Money is 24 pts ahead of bets on SYR

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 9.5-point home favorite against SYR, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 74%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 9; 41.5 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MINN vs UL 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	35–24	W	O48.5
Very close	AUB vs VAN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	7–17	L	U48
Close	OU vs UK 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	13–21	L	U44.5
Close	CAL vs ORST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & season form	-13	44–7	W	P51
Close	WIS vs NU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-12	10–24	L	U43.5
Close	NEB vs NU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	28–21	P	O44.5
Close	OKST vs USA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-7	7–33	L	U49.25
Close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Close	ASU vs HOU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–24	L	U47
Close	LOU vs VT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-9.75	34–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SYR LLLWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
UNC LLWWW	4-2	67%	1-1	0-1

Venue/role: SYR away, as underdog; UNC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SYR UUOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
UNC UOOUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 1292 games with totals 43.5–51.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 33% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
UNC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs SMU	L18–31WU
Nov 7	vs CLEM	W34–21WO
Nov 14	@ NCSU	W24–17WU

North Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	vs MIA	W41–31WO
Nov 7	@ CONN	L14–27LU
Nov 14	vs LOU	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SYR 0–2 UNC UNC leads · 2 games since 2023 · UNC has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 31 2025	North Carolina 27 @ Syracuse 10	SYR -1.5	UNC W
Oct 7 2023	Syracuse 7 @ North Carolina 40	UNC -9	UNC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SYR−3.6 →+0.4▲ 4.0#69

UNC−2.1 →+5.0▲ 7.1#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SYR

Longer bar = better

UNC

#83

Offense

Even

#82

#76

Defense

UNC better ▶

#51

−0.3 #96

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #98

81 plays #2

Pace

◀ SYR faster

58 plays #137

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SYR has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	SYR off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #53	19.2 #34	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #94	4.96 #35	UNC
PPA / play	+0.05 #104	+0.02 #41	UNC
Success rate	42% #81	43% #92	Even

When UNC has the ball

Even matchup

	UNC off	SYR def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #102	25.7 #89	Even
Yards / play	5.73 #83	5.37 #66	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #90	+0.08 #69	SYR
Success rate	45% #52	42% #81	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SYR scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SYR scored	6.7 #61	15.0 #5	21.7 #14	2.5 #131	6.2 #90	8.7 #128
UNC allowed	5.7 #89	3.3 #14	9.0 #34	3.0 #31	7.2 #96	10.2 #54

UNC scoring against the SYR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	8.0 #35	6.7 #103	14.7 #76	5.0 #96	3.8 #130	8.8 #126
SYR allowed	5.8 #96	6.3 #56	12.2 #75	4.5 #63	7.8 #103	12.3 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.