Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Miami · Conference game
PITT 8%92% MIA
Spread
MIA -19.5
open MIA -23.5
Total
48.5
model 52.5
Spread edge
MIA by 1
no lean
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenMIA -23.5
CurrentMIA -19.5
Total53.5 → 48.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenMIA -23.5
4 → PITT
NowMIA -19.5
4 pts toward Pittsburgh
Total
Open53.5
▼ 5
Now48.5
Down 5 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened MIA -23.5 · now MIA -19.5 · moved 4 toward PITTmodel MIA -20.5
model MIA -20.5
Opened 53.5 · now 48.5 · moved 5 downmodel 52.5
model 52.5
Openline modelNow
Line context
Home favorites of 18.5–20.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 45% (109 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenMIA -23.5
CurrentMIA -19.5
Total53.5 → 48.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game preview · 1:02
Pittsburgh at Miami: game preview
Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 7:32 PM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.
Transcript
The line has moved 4 points toward Pittsburgh since it opened. Pittsburgh visits Miami, Saturday at 12 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Miami sits 3rd, Pittsburgh 39th. That’s about 16.5 points better than Pittsburgh on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Pittsburgh has held steady around 39th, while Miami has moved up from 6th to 3rd. Kickoff forecast at Hard Rock Stadium: 78 degrees, dry, wind 10 miles per hour, gusting to 18. Miami games have gone over 5 of 6 times. Miami has the better offense, 1st to 61st. The defenses are close: 23rd and 19th. Our model projects Miami 36, Pittsburgh 16, with a 92 percent win chance. Miami is favored by 19.5, down from 23.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 53.5 and sits at 48.5. Our model makes it Miami by 20.5, with a total near 52.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview
Books
9 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PITT |  MIA | Over | Under | PITT | MIA | |
| BetMGMMGM | +20-108 | -20-110 | 48.5-108 | 48.5-110 | +1050 | -1600 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +20-112 | -20-108 | 48.5-106 | 48.5-114 | +945 | -1700 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +20-110 | -20-113 | 49.5-109 | 49.5-114 | +1000 | -2500 |
| BetUSBetUS | +20-110 | -20-110 | 48.5-110 | 48.5-110 | +950 | -1700 |
| BovadaBovada | +20-110 | -20-110 | 48.5-110 | 48.5-110 | +850 | -1800 |
| DraftKingsDK | +19.5-105 | -19.5-115 | 48.5-112 | 48.5-108 | +950 | -1650 |
| FanDuelFD | +20.5-114 | -20.5-106 | 48.5-110 | 48.5-110 | +980 | -2000 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +20-108 | -20-104 | 48.5-104 | 48.5-113 | +945 | -1700 |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | +20-110 | -20-110 | 48.5-110 | 48.5-110 | +924 | -2039 |
1st-half prices
3 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | MIA | Over | Under | |
| BetUSBetUS | +11.5-119 | -11.5-101 | 26.5-118 | 26.5-102 |
| DraftKingsDK | +10.5-105 | -10.5-115 | 26.5-115 | 26.5-105 |
| FanDuelFD | +11.5-120 | -11.5-102 | 26.5-122 | 26.5+100 |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Spread
PITT +19.5MIA -19.5Bets53%
47%
Money47%
53%
Winner
PITTMIABets3%
97%
Money9%
91%
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like MIA as a 19.5-point home favorite against PITT, the favorite won 10, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.
Compare by
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Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 50%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 18.6; 64.1 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation |
-21 | 31–13 | L | U50 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread |
-18 | 30–27 | L | O52 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation |
-20.5 | 59–32 | W | O55.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & rest |
-17.5 | 44–42 | L | O49 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form |
-15.5 | 41–24 | W | O49.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread |
-18.5 | 38–14 | W | O45.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings |
-21 | 27–25 | L | O50 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-18.5 | 31–14 | L | U47 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & rest |
-14.5 | 51–13 | W | O47 |
| Loose |
2025 · Postseason · loose · similar team ratings |
-20.5 | 51–34 | L | O47.5 |
UGA
AUB
MIZ
VAN
WASH
CAL
GT
UTAH
KU
ALA
WIS
SC
TEX
UK
ORE
JMUHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Miami 92%
Projected PITT 16 – MIA 36 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
MIA -20.5
Market MIA -19.5
Against the spread
No lean
Below the 3-point lean threshold.
Total
No lean
Model 52.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from MIA’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadMIA rating edge+18.2+Home field+2.5=Model marginMIA by 20.7
TotalScoring ratings54.7+Wind 10 mph−2.0=Model total52.7
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Pittsburgh ATS trend
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Pittsburgh
4 pts (MIA -23.5 → MIA -19.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 5
53.5 → 48.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 1384 games with totals 44.5–52.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| MIA | 9-1 90% | 8-2 80% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
PITT 12–30 MIA (1 tied)
MIA leads · 43 games since 1950 · MIA has won the last meeting
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29 2025 | Miami 38 @ Pittsburgh 7 | MIA -6.5 | MIA W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
PITT+6.4 →+7.6▲ 1.2#39
MIA+21.1 →+24.1▲ 3.0#3
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7
PITTLonger bar = better
MIA#61
Offense
MIA better ▶#1
#23
Defense
Even#19
+0.6 #29
Turnovers
MIA better ▶+0.8 #15
71 plays #19
Pace
◀ PITT faster69 plays #41
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When PITT has the ball| PITT off | MIA def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 32.9 #45 | 14.0 #7 | MIA |
| Yards / play | 6.30 #47 | 4.65 #22 | MIA |
| PPA / play | +0.13 #77 | −0.02 #21 | MIA |
| Success rate | 43% #74 | 37% #25 | MIA |
When MIA has the ball| MIA off | PITT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 48.5 #1 | 16.4 #22 | MIA |
| Yards / play | 8.07 #1 | 5.03 #43 | MIA |
| PPA / play | +0.44 #1 | −0.02 #19 | Even |
| Success rate | 54% #1 | 34% #8 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
PITT scoring against the MIA defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT scored | 10.1 #17 | 9.6 #60 | 19.7 #27 | 6.9 #49 | 6.3 #88 | 13.1 #74 |
| MIA allowed | 2.7 #16 | 3.3 #14 | 6.0 #7 | 2.2 #13 | 4.7 #34 | 6.8 #12 |
MIA scoring against the PITT defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA scored | 11.0 #12 | 16.8 #1 | 27.8 #1 | 10.5 #10 | 7.7 #55 | 18.2 #15 |
| PITT allowed | 3.0 #30 | 6.9 #66 | 9.9 #47 | 2.0 #11 | 4.6 #30 | 6.6 #9 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
MIA +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 10 mph
Wind trims 2.0 pts off the total
Rest
PITT7d
MIA7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 141 plays
slowavg 133fast
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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